Idea: Long WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals)
Entry: $124.90
**Stop Loss:** $103.80
Take Profit: $167.00
**Risk/Reward:** ~1:1.7 (Risk $21.10 / Reward $42.10)
Timeframe: Position Trading (Weeks to Months)

The Setup

Wheaton Precious Metals reports Q2 2026 earnings after the close today, August 6 – the conference call is scheduled for tomorrow morning. The stock closed yesterday at $122.82, up 6.42%, and is now setting up for a potential breakout.

The entry at $124.90** represents a breakout above recent resistance. **Stop at $103.80 sits below the 52-week low zone and the 200-day moving average. **Target at $167.00** aligns with the average analyst price target of $169.66–$172.25.

The Fundamentals

Analysts are expecting a massive Q2 beat. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects $877 million in sales** – **74% growth year-over-year** – and **EPS of $1.11, implying 76.1% year-over-year growth. WPM has beaten consensus in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.1%.

The company projects attributable production of 860,000–940,000 gold-equivalent ounces for 2026, with the midpoint indicating a 30% year-over-year increase. Revenue for FY2026 is forecast at **$3.72 billion**, up from $2.31 billion in FY2025.

Valuation: According to GuruFocus, WPM has a GF Value™ of $177.47, implying the stock is 35% undervalued at current levels. The GF Score™ of 93/100 reflects exceptional quality, with perfect 10/10 scores in Financial Strength and Growth. The current P/E of 29.2x sits notably below the 5-year median of 36.4x.

Analyst Backing

According to 16 analysts polled by S&P Global, WPM has a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" with an average price target of $172.25 – implying 40.25% upside.

Consensus rating: Strong Buy (16 analysts – 11 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 0 Hold)

Average target: $172.25

Range: $145 (low) to $215 (high)

Recent ratings:

RBC Capital maintained Buy with a $160 target on August 3

Scotiabank holds with a $175 target

Berenberg Bank maintained Buy with a $157 target

Jefferies maintains Buy with a $177 target

Our $167 take profit sits comfortably within the analyst range, just below the average target.

Technical Setup

The stock has been in a significant correction but is showing signs of bottoming:

52-Week Range: $90.95 – $165.76

Recent price: $122.82 (up 6.42% on Aug 5)

20-day SMA: ~$117.45 (approx.)

50-day SMA: ~$126.75 (approx.)

200-day SMA: ~$118.70 (approx.)

Key levels:

Support: $103–$108 (52-week low area and strong historical support)

Resistance: $125–$128 (near 20-day and 50-day SMAs)

Major resistance: $135–$140 (prior breakdown zone)

Entry at $124.90** offers a margin of safety above the 200-day SMA and recent support. **Stop at $103.80 sits below the 52-week low zone and provides structural protection. Target at $167.00 aligns with the analyst consensus and represents a retracement toward the upper end of the 52-week range.

The Catalyst

The Q2 2026 earnings report after the close today serves as the primary catalyst. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP (+3.20%) and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) increases the chances of a beat.

Additional catalysts:

Transformational Antamina transaction expanding silver exposure

Record revenue, earnings, and operating cash flow expected

35% undervaluation according to GF Value™

Strong institutional backing with a 5-star RBC analyst and Strong Buy consensus

Key Risks

Earnings miss: While the Zacks model predicts a beat, estimates have been revised downward by 7.5% in the past 60 days

Metals price volatility: WPM's streaming model is tied to gold and silver prices

Valuation concerns: Some analysts view the stock as fairly valued, with BofA cutting its target to $145 in July

Short-term pressure: The stock has fallen ~24% over the past 12 weeks

Conclusion

Wheaton Precious Metals offers a compelling deep value setup on three pillars: a Q2 earnings catalyst with 74% revenue growth and 76% EPS growth expected, a 35% undervaluation according to GF Value™, and overwhelming institutional backing with a Strong Buy consensus and average target of $172.25. The streaming model's resilience, record production guidance, and 2030 growth narrative provide additional support.

Entry $124.90, Stop $103.80, Target $167.00 – a clean, risk-defined setup with favorable asymmetry.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal trading idea based on technical and fundamental analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Manage your position size appropriately.