Sugar remains bearish from a broader perspective, having traded inside the red descending channel for an extended period. Despite the prevailing downtrend, price has repeatedly respected the blue support area, where buyers have stepped in several times to prevent a breakdown.

Recently, price broke above the descending channel, providing the first indication that bullish momentum may be beginning to build. At the same time, a developing bullish divergence is adding more confluence to the bullish scenario and may serve as an early indication that bearish momentum is beginning to weaken. However, additional confirmation is still required before a broader trend reversal can be considered.

For the bullish scenario to strengthen, buyers would need to break above the green trigger area, marking the previous major high. A successful breakout would increase the probability of a move toward the red resistance area.

⭕As price approaches the red resistance area, we can start looking for sell setups on lower timeframes, anticipating a continuation of the broader bearish structure. However, if buyers manage to break above this resistance, it would provide the first major indication that momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish.

⭕At the same time, if price revisits the blue support area while it continues to hold, lower timeframes may provide opportunities to look for buy setups, anticipating another bullish reaction.

The reaction around these key technical levels may reveal whether buyers are building the foundation for a broader trend reversal, or if sellers are preparing to reassert control of the long-term downtrend.

⚠️Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice.

Rayan Nasser

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