Inflation target of 2% may not stop the next Fed rate freeze

The Fed can stop raising rates before inflation reaches 2% if officials believe the economy's already heading there without another increase.

September's meeting left most unconvinced, with strong spending and persistent price increases outweighing the strain expensive borrowing was putting on parts of the economy.

The minutes released Oct. 7 explain the thinking behind that month's unanimous decision to raise its main interest rate to 3.75%-4%.

Most participants expected another hike by year-end, but their reasons differed: many saw higher rates as insurance against inflation sticking around, while others thought the economy would need higher rates anyway.

Those views can overlap, but they leave different amounts of room for persuasion. Evidence that temporary price increases are fading could reassure someone seeking insurance, while an official who thinks spending is too strong would also want to see people and businesses spending less freely.

That discussion helps explain what could stop another hike, although officials didn't agree on a set of conditions that would rule it out.

Cheaper gasoline won't do all the work

Higher rates make borrowing more expensive and saving more attractive, discouraging some spending and making it harder for businesses to charge more. The effects take time, and they don't reach everyone equally: homebuyers may pull back while companies with plenty of cash keep investing.

The Fed can't produce oil or remove an import tax, so raising borrowing costs won't fix the shortages behind some price increases. It can reduce spending enough to make those increases harder to pass along, lowering the risk that an initial jump in costs turns into persistent inflation across the economy.

In September, officials described higher energy costs alongside heavy spending on the equipment and data centers needed for artificial intelligence.

Some businesses appeared better able to pass their costs to customers, and several participants pointed to continued price increases in services other than housing. Cheaper fuel would help those businesses, but customers willing to keep spending could still let them raise other prices.

Repeated reports showing slower price increases across different purchases would give the Fed more reason to wait. Inflation falling just means prices are rising more slowly, so groceries can still feel expensive while the data improves. Officials would look for evidence that businesses are losing the ability or need to keep charging more.

They'd also need to separate economic improvement from revisions to how it's measured. The minutes noted that a planned revision to the inflation calculation would reduce how much software prices and investment-management fees added to the reported rate.

Better measurement can improve policy decisions, but a lower reading from a revised calculation doesn't mean businesses have simply reduced their price increases.

Officials thought people still expected inflation to settle around the 2% goal over time, although they worried that more years above target could lead workers to seek larger pay increases and businesses to plan bigger price increases.

Slower price increases across more of the economy, with people still expecting inflation to come down, would give officials less reason to raise rates as a precaution before the target is reached.

The jobs market doesn't have to collapse to count

The Fed's responsibility to support employment limits how far it should go in making borrowing more expensive.

In September, participants generally saw steady employment with relatively few people out of work, and most thought it had strengthened somewhat, giving the Fed room to act against inflation.

Some said pay was rising fast enough for inflation to return to 2%, or that the jobs market wasn't currently driving inflation. Several noted that hiring and layoffs were both unusually low, while people out of work had difficulty finding another job.

Low layoffs can make employment look healthy to someone who already has a job, while weak hiring makes it miserable for someone seeking one. If employers start cutting staff before hiring improves, people who lose their jobs have fewer places to go, potentially turning a stable unemployment rate into a much less reassuring picture.

Repeated unemployment increases alongside broader layoffs would make another hike harder to justify, even if inflation hadn't improved as much as officials wanted. One disappointing jobs report could reflect temporary conditions or be revised, so evidence across several reports would carry more weight than a single number.

Slower inflation with stable employment would give the Fed a better reason to stop. In September, officials generally saw roughly equal chances of employment doing better or worse than expected, while inflation seemed more at risk of being too high.

Continued weak hiring or more job losses would give them reason to reconsider without waiting for a recession.

Your mortgage rate can feel expensive while money still flows

Several officials thought interest rates were doing little to slow the economy, despite expensive mortgages and strain on lower-income households.

Many businesses could still borrow money, investment in AI was strong, and stock-market gains were supporting spending among wealthier households.

People struggling to buy a home and the companies financing new projects experienced the same economy very differently. The Fed has to judge whether their combined spending is slowing enough to bring inflation down, which is why painful housing borrowing costs don't automatically settle the decision.

Economists describe an interest rate that neither speeds up nor slows down the economy as neutral, but they have to estimate where it is. Two officials had raised their estimates of that rate, meaning they thought a higher interest rate was needed to slow the economy by the same amount.

Lenders becoming more cautious and spending slowing down would provide evidence that existing borrowing costs were doing more of the work.

Market rates can also rise without another Fed hike, although longer-term loan rates don't automatically move in step with the short-term rate the Fed controls. Officials would need to see those costs actually slowing borrowing and spending.

Lower inflation with employment holding up could give investors reason to expect cheaper borrowing while keeping them willing to own Bitcoin and other assets with large price swings. If job losses and difficulty getting loans instead persuaded the Fed to pause, investors could be selling those assets to keep more money in cash at the same time.

Holding rates steady wouldn't promise cuts or make financing cheap again. Officials meet next on Oct. 27–28, and these minutes just describe their September judgment.

Evidence that price increases are slowing without another rate hike would give them a reason to wait, while evidence that more people are losing jobs would make another increase harder to defend, with much less for Bitcoin investors to celebrate.

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