Oil Slides as JD Vance Pushes Iran Peace Talks. Why Isn't Bitcoin Rallying?

Oil has dropped about 21% this month as Vice President JD Vance chases Iran peace talks. Crypto traders hoped cheaper oil would lift Bitcoin (BTC). It has not.

Iran now says the talks do not exist. And in Washington, markets see a December interest rate hike as a near-certainty.

Vance Wrote to Iran, but Tehran Says There Are No Talks

Vance wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, who runs Iran’s top security body, the WSJ reported. Qatari mediators delivered the letter.

Its core demand was clear. Iran must not get a nuclear weapon. Vance offered to meet, possibly in Istanbul or Doha, Gulf News reported, citing the Washington Post.

Not everyone in Washington is on board. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly oppose a reported Hormuz shipping deal Vance backs, according to TipRanks.

Then Tehran hit back. Rezaei called the reports baseless and accused the US of trying to talk oil prices down, Seoul Economic Daily reported. Brent crude jumped nearly 3% on Wednesday.

Why Bitcoin Fell While Oil Dropped

Bitcoin did jump at first. It passed $80,000 after oil fell 12% on Nov. 4. By Monday, it had sunk to about $73,600.

Gasoline drove more than half of September’s US price rises. Traders hoped cheaper fuel would stop the Federal Reserve from raising rates.

Tuesday ended that hope. October prices rose 0.4%, beating forecasts. Rate futures now price no chance of a pause, with 88.8% odds of a quarter-point hike.

One Fed governor wants to go further.

“Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take,” said Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

The Fed decides on Dec. 9. Until then, Bitcoin traders are watching two things at once, Iran’s next move and America’s prices.

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