93% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Today. What Happens to Bitcoin Now?

Interest rate futures put a 92.7% chance on the Federal Reserve raising rates on Wednesday. That leaves traders worried across both the crypto and stock markets. Because Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh with one single promise: cut interest rates. But Warsh can’t deliver that with inflation running at 3.4%

So, how will the market react, and which way will Bitcoin move?

Why a Pause is the Closest thing Warsh can give Trump

The Fed’s target range sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of no change at 7.3% on Wednesday morning, with zero odds of a cut.

Trump picked Warsh for the job and watched him sworn in at the White House in May. Even ahead of the swearing-in, the president was already treating his would-be chair as an ally.

“You’re my Fed chair,” Trump told Kevin Warsh in November 2024 after he showed up at Mar-a-Lago to interview for Treasury secretary.

It took 14 months, a reality-TV-style audition, a Wall Street whisper campaign, and a criminal investigation of Jay Powell before it came true.…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) January 31, 2026

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has argued that Trump pressure and midterms are the only forces still blocking a hike. White House economic adviser Christopher Phelan said a move this week would be a mistake. Midterm elections are seven weeks away.

Former Fed governor Stephen Miran made the data case against hiking in an interview this week.

“If you held in June and July and become more hawkish as the inflation data come down, it speaks to an incoherent reaction function,” he shared.

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What Bitcoin and Gold Did the Last Time the Data Surprised

Rate expectations set the cost of holding assets that pay no interest. Bitcoin and gold both sit in that group, so cheaper money tends to help them.

The Bitcoin price held near $76,022 as of this writing, down 1.17% in 24 hours. Gold traded around $4,340 an ounce, up 1.4% on the day.

The August inflation report on September 11 showed how fast both react. Bitcoin fell from roughly $77,100 to $76,050 inside a minute. Gold slid from $4,353 to $4,292, then recovered.

BeInCrypto flagged hike odds near 90% that day. Pricing has since hardened to 92.7%.

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told the Associated Press that a hike now could pull long-term rates lower later. Warsh’s press conference, not the quarter point itself, is what traders will parse.

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