Gold prices (XAU/USD) began the new trading week with a moderate bullish gap, climbing in the Asian session but holding below the psychological level of $4,100 per troy ounce.

On the one hand, the US dollar's (USD) modest recovery from its mid-June lows hampered the commodity's upward movement. On the other hand, a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough from Washington—coupled with the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production quotas—was able to mitigate the threat of exogenous inflation, restrain the US dollar, and secure a solid gold base above $4,050.

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✅ Weekend Geopolitical Breakout: Trump Cancels Strikes & Talks Monday Afternoon
The Middle East geopolitical landscape underwent a radical shift over the weekend, crushing the risk premium on crude oil:

- Trump Cancels Military Strikes: US President Donald Trump surprisingly cancelled a wave of airstrikes against Iran that had been scheduled for last weekend. Trump confirmed that US allies in the Middle East had successfully developed the initial framework of an agreement regarding limits on Tehran's nuclear program and the full opening of navigation channels in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Direct Negotiations Monday Afternoon: Trump confirmed that US and Iranian delegations are scheduled to resume high-level negotiations on Monday afternoon. This sign of de-escalation in the five-month-long kinetic war has fueled widespread optimism for a diplomatic solution.

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🛢️ US Commodities & Macro: OPEC+ Raises Production, ISM Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls Friday in Focus
Upstream energy market turmoil eased as a busy week of US economic data began:

- OPEC+ Boosts September Production: At its meeting last Sunday, the OPEC+ alliance formally decided to increase crude oil production in September. The combination of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the increased OPEC+ supply triggered a sharp plunge in crude oil prices. This easing in energy prices has cooled concerns about energy-driven inflation and reduced expectations of aggressive monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve.

- Key US Macro Data Series: Tonight's New York session will feature the release of the important US ISM Manufacturing PMI (at 9:00 PM WIB), which will provide an early indication of the health of the industrial sector. Market attention throughout this week will be focused on the release of the crucial US monthly employment report, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), on Friday.

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🛠️ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, gold prices are consolidating gains above the $4,050 base following a bullish gap opening in the morning, with the price still trapped within a wide consolidation corridor:

- Post-De-escalation Consolidation Range Pattern: The easing of war tensions has tended to compress gold's volatility. Without a valid breakout and a four-hour candle closing above $4,100, gold's movement is projected to tend to move sideways (range-bound/choppy).

- Intraday Support Level $4,050: The downside is protected by the gap floor at $4,050. A clear break below this level would close the morning gap and lead gold to retest the horizontal support area around $4,020-$4,030.