Market Context

Gold is trading around $4,063 after recovering from the $4,025 area. However, price remains below the descending bearish trendline and the $4,106–$4,116 OB zone, keeping the broader sell structure intact.

The macro backdrop is mixed. Gold has received support from sharply lower oil prices and a softer US dollar, which have eased part of the recent inflation pressure. However, today’s US manufacturing data and Friday’s employment report could create fresh volatility.

SMC View

The bearish MSS near $4,028 confirmed that the previous bullish sequence had weakened. The current rebound may therefore represent a retracement into supply rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

The $4,106–$4,116 OB aligns with the bearish market trendline, making it the main decision zone. Selling near the current price would mean entering in the middle of the range, so a clear rejection and lower-timeframe structure shift are required.

Main Trading Scenario

Condition:

Gold retraces into the $4,106–$4,116 OB zone and forms a clear bearish rejection below the descending trendline. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.

Entry: $4,106–$4,116 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,120 and the rejection high
TP1: $4,063–$4,070
TP2: $4,028–$4,030
TP3: $3,985–$3,995

Key Zones to Watch

Current price: $4,063.375
Main sell zone: $4,106–$4,116
Trendline resistance: $4,100–$4,116
MSS level: $4,028–$4,030
Main target: $3,985–$3,995
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,120
Confirmation: Bearish rejection with MSS or CHOCH

Prime Gold View

The sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below the bearish trendline and the $4,106–$4,116 OB. The preferred plan is to wait for a confirmed retracement rather than chase an entry near the current price.

If sellers defend the OB, price could rotate toward $4,028 and potentially sweep liquidity around $3,985–$3,995. Acceptance above $4,120 would weaken the bearish setup.

No confirmation, no trade.