XAUUSD continues to fluctuate inside the 4022–4116 price corridor as investors remain focused on upcoming macroeconomic events that could determine the next major move. Even so, the overall technical picture still points to a prevailing bearish trend.

Market Overview

The U.S. dollar has softened after the Japanese yen strengthened on the back of renewed intervention measures. Although the decline in the DXY would normally provide stronger support for gold, the precious metal has reacted only modestly. From a fundamental standpoint, market sentiment continues to favor a decline toward the 4000–3975 region.

The broader macroeconomic environment remains unfavorable for gold. The Federal Reserve continues to show significant internal disagreement, with three policymakers supporting another interest rate increase. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding Governor Waller's policy outlook, softer U.S. economic indicators, including GDP at 1.5% and PCE slowing to 3.3%, together with escalating tensions in the Middle East, continue to shape investor expectations. Rising oil prices are adding further inflationary pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may maintain a more hawkish stance.

From a technical perspective, gold has failed to break above resistance and is currently challenging the important 4022 support level. Buying activity remains weak, suggesting that bullish momentum is limited. This increases the likelihood of a downside move toward the 4000–3950 zone.

Resistance: 4070, 4083, 4116
Support: 4022, 3996, 3973

Before extending the broader bearish movement, price could revisit the 4070–4083 resistance area during the opening part of the session. The 4116 level also remains an important technical barrier. If a short squeeze develops into these resistance zones, it may create favorable conditions for another bearish reversal targeting the 4000 area.