QQQ / NDX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK


QQQ Weekly Recap Outlook

Long Scenario 2: Price found support almost to the exact tick at Key Level 2 (663) before reversing sharply higher.

Performance: Rallied +33.4 points (+4.9%), delivering a textbook execution of our macro map.

(For reference I have included last week's outlook on the right.)



UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics

Total Trades Taken: 7
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 1
Win Rate: 85.7%
Index Options: 4 Trades (3 Wins / 1 Loss)
Futures Desk: 2 Trades (2 Wins — ES & NQ)
Tactical Equities: 1 Trade (1 Win — AAPL )



This Week's Scenarios / Prediction

Risk Index

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.

The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.

The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.

This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops. Because directional moves can accelerate quickly and reversals may become increasingly violent, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.



Scenarios / Strategies

Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (712)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 705.



Long Scenario 2
Pivot Zone (688)
This is the primary pivot level to monitor. If price retraces into this area and confirms support, it may provide another high-probability long opportunity.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 680.



Long Scenario 3
Swing Level (712)
A confirmed breakout above this level would suggest that bullish momentum is strengthening and that price may begin rotating toward the higher supply zones.
Trigger: Price must break above 712 and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close above the Swing Level.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 705.



Short Scenario 1
Swing Level (705)
This area represents the primary short-term supply zone. A confirmed rejection from this level may provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the level followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close above 712.




Short Scenario 2
Main Supply (735)
This is the major higher-timeframe supply zone. If price rallies into this area and confirms rejection, tactical short exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 744.



Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Every scenario has its own invalidation level. Respect them without exception.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ futures charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).




This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.