XAUUSD: Breakout Week, 4,234 Must Hold

Market Context

Gold closes the week with a strong bullish recovery after buyers stepped in aggressively from the lower imbalance zone and pushed price higher with clear momentum. The week started with hesitation around 4,050 - 4,070, but once short-term structure was broken, buyers took full control.

Macro support came from softer USD, easing geopolitical tension, cooling inflation expectations, and reduced probability of aggressive Fed tightening. However, the move is now extended, meaning the market is no longer in “easy entry” mode — it is in “confirmation or pullback” mode.

Key point: structure has flipped bullish, but 4,234 is the line that defines continuation or correction.

Weekly Recap

Early week: Price held above deep demand and started building a base from 4,050 - 4,070.

Midweek: Market broke internal structure, reclaimed 4,119, and expanded toward 4,148 - 4,172.

Late week: Momentum accelerated, breaking 4,245 and 4,260, then pushing into the 4,300+ region.

Current view: Daily CHoCH confirms bullish shift, but price is now pressing into higher timeframe resistance.

Technical Structure

Gold is currently trading around 4,341 after a strong impulsive daily candle. The structure shows a clean bullish recovery, with price now clearly detached from the main accumulation zone.

Main support sits at 4,100 - 4,234. This is the Buy FVG Zone where buyers previously stepped in, and it remains the most important area on the chart.

As long as price holds above 4,234, bullish continuation remains valid, with upside expansion toward 4,428 - 4,513.

Above that, the major supply / OB zone sits at 4,700 - 4,708. This is where strong profit-taking or reversal pressure is expected if momentum extends.

The higher liquidity target remains 4,886, but this only becomes relevant if price can accept above 4,513 and build continuation structure.

Key Levels

Current Price: 4,341
Main Buy Zone: 4,100 - 4,234
Key Support: 4,101
Resistance Zone: 4,428 - 4,513
Strong OB Resistance: 4,700 - 4,708
Buyside Liquidity: 4,886
Lower Liquidity: 3,960
Bullish Continuation: Above 4,513
Bearish Risk: Below 4,234

Trading Plan

Buy Pullback

Entry: 4,100 - 4,234
SL: Below 4,101
TP: 4,428 / 4,513 / 4,700

Condition: Price retraces into the FVG Buy Zone and shows clear bullish reaction. The key is defense of 4,234 — if that level fails, the setup is invalid. Deeper entries near 4,100 require strong rejection confirmation, not early anticipation.

Buy Continuation

Entry: Above 4,513 after breakout + retest
SL: Below 4,428
TP: 4,700 / 4,708 / 4,886

Condition: Market must break resistance with momentum, then retest and hold. Avoid chasing breakout candles — wait for acceptance and structure confirmation.

Sell Reaction

Entry: 4,428 - 4,513
SL: Above 4,540
TP: 4,341 / 4,234 / 4,100

Condition: Price reacts bearish at resistance zone. This is a counter-trend scalp only unless structure fully flips below 4,234.

Strong OB Sell

Entry: 4,700 - 4,708
SL: Above 4,750
TP: 4,513 / 4,428 / 4,234

Condition: Price reaches major supply zone and shows exhaustion. This is where larger players may take profit and initiate reversal pressure.

Breakdown Sell

Entry: Below 4,234 after breakdown + retest
SL: Above 4,341
TP: 4,100 / 4,000 / 3,960

Condition: Loss of 4,234 invalidates bullish structure. Retest failure confirms shift back to bearish expansion.

Overall Bias

Gold ends the week in a clear bullish structure shift. Buyers have successfully broken the previous downtrend and are now controlling price above key levels.

Next week, 4,234 is the most important level on the chart. Holding above it keeps bullish continuation toward 4,428 - 4,513 in play. A clean breakout above 4,513 opens the path toward 4,700 - 4,708.

If price loses 4,234, the market likely needs a deeper correction back into 4,100 before any new bullish expansion.

Best approach: stay with the trend, but do not chase extension. Let price come into value (4,100 - 4,234) or confirm breakout above resistance before engaging.

Will buyers defend 4,234 and continue the expansion, or is the market preparing for a deeper reset before the next leg up?