Spotify earnings are in, and the numbers Wall Street got were a mixed bag. Spotify Technology SA reported second-quarter profit of $633.6 million, or $3.03 per share, and that missed the average estimate of $3.27 from the eight analysts Zacks Investment Research surveyed. The Spotify earnings report showed revenue of $5.55 billion for the quarter, which landed right in line with what Wall Street expected. Spotify stock Wall Street reaction is still forming, and spot earnings today have already reopened the question at the center of every Spotify stock forecast right now, whether SPOT can turn strong subscriber numbers into the kind of profit growth investors have been waiting for.
Also Read: Can Apple Stock Double by 2030? The Bull Case Behind AAPL’s Future Upside
Spotify Earnings Report Puts SPOT Stock Forecast In Focus
What Analysts Are Expecting From Spotify Earnings
The $3.03 per share Spotify posted came in below the $3.27 consensus, and analysts had already trimmed that estimate by 2.9 percent in the 30 days leading up to the Spotify earnings report, which suggests spotify stock Wall Street coverage saw some of this softness coming. Revenue of $5.55 billion, though, met the Street’s target and marked growth of 16.7 percent from a year earlier, so the top line held up even as profit per share fell short.
Spotify’s own guidance from back in April had pointed to Q2 operating income of 630 million euros, a number that already sat below the 684 million euros analysts had penciled in at the time, according to Reuters. That early warning is one reason spot earnings today landed the way they did, since the company itself flagged softer profit growth months in advance.
Alex Norström’s Words Still Echo Ahead Of Spotify Earnings
Spotify’s co-CEO setup, in place since Daniel Ek moved into the executive chairman role at the start of 2026, means Alex Norström and Gustav Söderström now share the job of talking investors through results.
Alex Norström, co-CEO of Spotify, said back in April:
“We surpassed 760 million MAU, delivered on the subscriber growth we aimed to achieve, and saw healthy engagement from existing users, reactivations and new users alike. All that reinforces our confidence in sustained user and subscriber growth, low churn, and continued progress on revenue and margin.”
That kind of confidence is exactly what spot earnings today will put to the test, since Q1’s operating income of 715 million euros and a 33 percent gross margin already set a pretty high bar for this quarter.
ARPU And Margin Pressure Will Decide The Spotify Stock Forecast
Wall Street desks are already digging into Average Revenue Per User to figure out why profit missed even as revenue held steady, since ARPU shows whether the recent price hikes and reworked premium tier are actually widening margins rather than just adding subscribers. A licensing deal with Universal Music Group that Spotify announced back in May, letting Premium users build AI remixes and covers, still has not shown up as a meaningful revenue driver in these numbers.
Rising AI and cloud costs look like a real factor behind the earnings miss, and Spotify stock Wall Street desks had already flagged that the lower payroll-linked charges which flattered Q1 profit were unlikely to repeat at the same scale this quarter. Now that spot earnings today have missed on the bottom line while beating on revenue, the Spotify stock forecast heading into the back half of the year looks a lot less certain than it did this morning.
