SPCX is entering one of its most closely watched trading sessions since its IPO. Today, 911.5 million previously locked-up shares become eligible for trading, dramatically increasing the potential supply of stock available to the market. The key word, however, is eligible. An unlock does not mean 911.5 million shares will immediately be sold, it simply means insiders, employees, and early investors now have the option to sell.

From a technical perspective, the timing is significant.

Price attempted to break above the descending channel but failed around the $110.00–$112.00 price area. That rejection pushed SPCX back inside the channel, confirming sellers continue to defend higher prices. Rather than establishing a bullish breakout, the market produced a failed retest, often a sign that downside momentum remains intact.

I'm currently short from $108.29, which now acts as the immediate pivot. As long as price remains below this level, the bearish structure remains valid.

The first downside objective is $104.85, a previous swing support( CURRENCT ALL TIME LOW) where buyers may attempt to slow the decline. Should selling pressure continue, the next major destination becomes the confluence around $100.00, where the lower boundary of the channel, structural support, and the psychological $100 level all align.

The lock-up expiration itself does not make this trade bearish. Instead, it introduces the possibility of elevated volatility at a time when the chart is already favouring sellers. If only a small percentage of eligible shareholders decide to sell, the technical structure may play out normally. If selling from newly eligible shareholders is larger than the market expects and demand cannot absorb that supply, it could accelerate the existing bearish trend.

Conversely, if the market absorbs the additional supply with little difficulty, it would suggest buyers remain in control beneath the surface. In that scenario, a recovery above $111.50 would invalidate my bearish outlook and increase the probability of another challenge of the upper channel resistance.

Markets don't react to the number of shares that can be sold, they react to the number of shares that are sold. That distinction is likely to determine whether today's lock-up expiration becomes nothing more than a headline or the catalyst that fuels the next leg lower.

For now, both the fundamentals and the technicals point to the same conclusion: the unlock introduces uncertainty, while the chart continues to print lower highs and lower lows. Until that structure changes, rallies into resistance remain opportunities for sellers, with $104.85 and $100.00 remaining the key downside levels to watch.

put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd