Idea: Long KSPI (Kaspi.kz JSC)
Entry: $93.26
**Stop Loss:** $88.00
Take Profit: $105.00
**Risk/Reward:** ~1:2.3 (Risk $5.26 / Reward $11.74)
Timeframe: Swing Trading (Weeks)

The Setup

Kaspi.kz is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on Monday, August 10, before the market opens. The company is a fintech powerhouse operating the Kaspi.kz Super App in Kazakhstan, offering integrated payments, marketplace, and personal finance solutions.

According to GuruFocus, KSPI has a GF Value™ of $203.63, implying the stock is trading approximately 54.8% below its intrinsic value. The GF Score™ of 81/100 reflects robust overall quality, with particular strengths in profitability and momentum.

The company offers a dividend yield near a one-year high at 3.93%, with a payout ratio of 0%, indicating strong dividend sustainability.

The Fundamentals

Analysts are expecting Q2 2026 EPS of approximately $2.84** on quarterly revenue of roughly **$2.31 billion. Revenue growth is projected at 21.04% year-over-year for the current quarter. The company's full-year 2026 revenue is forecasted to reach 5.04 trillion KZT, up from 4.05 trillion in 2025.

According to S&P Global, the consensus rating across 7 analysts is "Buy" with an average price target of $97.05** — implying 11.37% upside. MarketBeat reports an average target of **$96.67, with a high of $107.00** and a low of **$87.00. Our $105 take profit sits comfortably within the analyst range, just below the highest target.

The Technical Setup

The stock has been consolidating in a tight range, with the current price near $93. The 52-week range spans $68.59 to $99.20. Recent price action shows support holding above $87, with resistance near the $95-$99 zone.

Entry at $93.26** offers a margin of safety above recent support levels. **Stop at $88.00 sits below the 52-week low zone and provides structural protection. Target at $105.00 aligns with the high end of analyst targets and represents a test of the upper range.

The Catalyst

The Q2 2026 earnings report on August 10 serves as the primary catalyst. The company is expected to deliver strong revenue growth of over 21% year-over-year. Additionally, 10 premium gurus currently hold KSPI positions, with 5 adding and 4 trimming recently, underscoring balanced but positive institutional interest.

Key Risks

The fintech sector outlook has softened, with some analysts projecting slower growth due to a weakening labor market and tariff impacts

The stock is linked to the KOSPI index, which experienced a sharp 4.04% decline on August 6

Some analysts have lowered their price targets, with the most bearish at $85.64

A break below $87 would invalidate the support thesis

Conclusion

KSPI offers a compelling value setup on three pillars: deep undervaluation at 54.8% below GF Value, strong Q2 earnings catalyst with 21%+ revenue growth expected, and institutional backing with a Buy consensus and average target of $97. The 3.93% dividend yield provides additional support.

Entry $93.26, Stop $88.00, Target $105.00 — a clean, risk-defined setup with favorable 1:2.3 asymmetry.

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a personal trading idea based on technical and fundamental analysis, not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment.