Gold prices (XAU/USD) XAUUSD extended the massive +4% rally from the previous day, climbing for a fourth consecutive session and hitting new highs not seen since June 18 during Thursday's Asian trading.

The surge in bullion was driven by a sustained weakening of the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields, prompted by cooling US private-sector labor data, easing expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, and signs of initial de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

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✅ US Macro Realities: ADP Plunges to 40K, Services PMI Misses, and Fed Rate Outlook
Signs of a cooling US economy have significantly weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY):

- ADP Data Plunge (40K): Yesterday's Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed US private-sector employment grew by only 40,000 in July—marking a sharp slowdown from the previous month's 95,000 and falling well short of market consensus estimates.

- ⚡ISM Services PMI Miss (54.1): The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI came in at 54.1 (below the expected 54.5). This combination of softer data immediately reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to ~55% (down from 67% last week).

- ⚡Hawkish Rhetoric from Cook & Daly: Fed Governor Lisa Cook affirmed her readiness to support a rate hike if the disinflationary trend stalls. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for additional data prior to the September meeting decision. The market continues to price in an ~80% probability of at least one interest rate hike before the end of 2026.

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✅ Geopolitical Dualism: Oman Deal in Hormuz vs. Houthi Tanker Attacks
Middle East dynamics present two contrasting signals fueling uncertainty in energy commodity markets:

- ⚡Final Stages of Oman Deal: Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed it is in the final stages of drafting an agreement with Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dragging crude oil prices to three-week lows and easing fears of exogenous inflation.

- ⚡Houthi Attack on Saudi Tanker: However, the Houthi group in Yemen launched a new ballistic missile attack striking a Saudi-owned oil tanker off the coast of Yanbu port and in the Gulf of Aden. This escalation in the Red Sea maintains the geopolitical risk premium and prevents a deeper drop in oil prices.

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🛠️ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, XAU/USD continues a very solid bullish expansion trend, testing the key supply base area following the breakout above $4,100:

- ⚡Bullish Trend Dominance: As long as XAU/USD holds above the $4,110–$4,120 support base, the daily bias remains firmly under buyer control (bullish dominance).

- ⚡New York Session Catalysts Tonight: Market attention later tonight will focus on the release of US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (at 19:30 WIB) and speeches by FOMC members, ahead of the peak volatility expected with Friday's official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. A clean break above $4,180 would accelerate the rise toward the macro peak at $4,215.