After a strong bullish impulse, Gold has entered a pullback phase. However, from a Smart Money perspective, there is still no clear evidence that the overall trend has reversed.

📌 What I see now

✅ 1. Liquidity above 4304 has been taken, but the 4325.38 Reaction Level (Year Open) remains untouched.

This suggests that there is still unfilled liquidity above the market, making 4325.38 a potential price magnet.

✅ 2. The current pullback remains shallow.

So far, price has:

not broken the last Higher Low;
remained above the EMA200;
preserved the bullish H1 market structure.

Therefore, there is still no confirmed bearish market structure.

📊 Two institutional scenarios

🟢 Scenario A – ~60% Probability

A pullback into the 4217 area, where a key Fair Value Gap and Reaction Level converge. If buyers defend this zone, price could resume the bullish trend and target:

4304 (current high);
4325.38 (Year Open / Reaction Level);
potentially sweep above 4325 before a larger correction develops.

This is currently my preferred scenario because 4325.38 has not yet been tested.

🔴 Scenario B – ~40% Probability

If the 4217 level fails to hold, the probability of a deeper correction increases, with the next institutional demand zone located around 4091–4077, where multiple technical factors align:

Buy Zone;
CHoCH;
EMA200;
Order Block;
Fair Value Gap.
👀 One detail that stands out

On the H1 chart, the recent bearish candles have relatively small bodies compared to the previous bullish impulse. At this stage, the move looks more like profit-taking than aggressive institutional selling.

📌 Verdict

As long as the H1 bullish structure remains intact and 4217 continues to hold, I believe the market may still have unfinished business to the upside. A move back toward 4304, followed by a potential liquidity sweep above 4325.38, remains a realistic scenario before any larger corrective move.

Probability over prediction.