Spot Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session and reached its highest level in seven weeks. Reuters reported Gold around $4,265.22 after its strongest daily gain since February. The main supports are a weaker dollar, declining Treasury yields and optimism that an arrangement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping pressure on oil and reducing inflation-driven rate expectations.

Expectations for a September Federal Reserve increase have declined to roughly 54%–55%, compared with materially higher probabilities earlier in the week. The U.S. 10-year yield was close to 4.609%.

Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly vulnerable to data-driven profit-taking.

Tactical levels
These are practical planning zones based on the current price, recent high and round-number structure rather than guaranteed turning points.

Resistance
* $4,265–$4,280: current seven-week-high area
* $4,300: first major psychological barrier
* $4,325: U.S. futures reference area
* $4,400: larger breakout objective
* $4,500: major medium-term resistance zone

Support
* $4,250: immediate intraday pivot
* $4,225–$4,230: first pullback zone
* $4,200: psychological support
* $4,157: important moving-average area cited in recent technical analysis
* $4,100–$4,120: deeper structural support

Gold scenario plan

Bullish continuation
The strongest bullish combination would be:
1. Claims above forecast.
2. Productivity near or above forecast.
3. Unit labour costs below forecast.
4. Dollar and 10-year yield both fall.
5. Gold holds $4,250 and clears $4,280.
Potential objectives: $4,300, $4,325, then $4,400.

Controlled pullback
Gold may consolidate without changing the broader bullish structure if:
* Claims are near forecast.

* Labour costs are not materially hot.
* Price remains above $4,225–$4,250.

This would favour patience rather than chasing the first move.

Bearish reversal
The strongest bearish setup would require:
1. Claims below forecast.
2. Productivity beats.
3. Unit labour costs rise sharply.
4. Dollar and Treasury yields move higher together.
5. Gold loses $4,225 and fails to recover it.

Potential downside areas: $4,200, $4,157, then $4,100–$4,120.

Key Gold risks
* A premature or failed Hormuz agreement could lift oil and inflation expectations.
* Gold’s strong four-session rally leaves it exposed to profit-taking.
* A weak claims number can initially support Gold but later trigger growth-related liquidation across assets.

* Friday’s payroll report may limit conviction after the first data move.

Bottom line
XAUUSD: Bullish while above $4,225–$4,250, with $4,280 and $4,300 as the immediate upside tests. Hot labour-cost data and rising yields create the principal downside risk.
US30: Bullish while above 54,494, but extended near record highs. A break through 54,650 opens 54,880 and potentially 55,000; a sustained loss of 54,494 raises pullback risk toward 54,350 and 54,000.
This briefing is market analysis and scenario planning, not personalised financial advice. Economic releases can produce rapid two-way movement, wider spreads and slippage.