In the short term, any substantive breakthrough or setback in US-Iran diplomatic progress will rapidly transmit to gold prices via oil prices; this week's employment data could serve as the next major catalyst.

The current rally in gold prices is the result of a combination of factors: a direct boost from softening oil prices, a reduction in the inflation premium due to expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, and declining US Treasury yields.

US and Iranian officials hold conflicting views on whether negotiations are currently underway; this likely stems from a desire to maintain political maneuvering room—avoiding the appearance of making the first concession while using intermediaries like Qatar and Oman to exchange terms and pave the way for future talks.

On the daily chart, the gold price has broken above the upper boundary of the triangular consolidation range and established itself above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20). While there are signs of strengthening in the short term, further confirmation is required. On the 4-hour chart, gold has shown a continuous upward trend, clearly shifting from weak to strong; the RSI remains in the bullish zone at 72 without indicating overbought conditions, and the MACD red histogram continues to expand, suggesting further upside potential. Overall, the recommended trading strategy is to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks.

Gold Trading Strategy:

BUY: Long positions at 4130–4140; stop-loss at 4110; target near 4188.
SELL: Short positions at 4200–4220; target 4170–4180.