Elliott Wave & SMC Analysis – XAUUSD – August 10, 2026
D1 Timeframe
D1 momentum has currently moved into the overbought zone. Therefore, during the new trading week, there is a strong possibility that we will see at least one corrective move.
Price has rallied strongly after completing the triangle corrective structure. However, to confirm whether this advance is actually wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish structure, we need to wait for the upcoming correction to complete.
If the correction does not create a lower low below the starting point of the current bullish move, the probability of a developing five-wave bullish structure will increase.
Looking at the current price position, price has already reached the upper FVG and is now only a short distance away from the 50% equilibrium level of the previous decline. Above this equilibrium level, there is another FVG, together with an Equal Highs liquidity area. This could become the next upside target for price.
However, last week's rally created a bullish FVG around 4146. Combined with D1 momentum currently being overbought, there is a possibility that price may retrace during this week to rebalance this FVG.
If the 4146 FVG is rebalanced while D1 momentum simultaneously moves into the oversold zone, this would provide a very favorable condition for looking for Buy opportunities.
H4 Timeframe
During the wave 5 rally, price continued to create FVGs. This suggests that bullish momentum on the H4 timeframe remains strong.
Therefore, there is still a possibility that price could make another push higher to sweep the liquidity above the 4382 high before a more significant decline begins.
H4 momentum is currently moving lower, so at the beginning of the new trading week, price may first decline to rebalance the FVG below before bouncing higher again.
H1 Timeframe
Price may currently be in the final stage of wave (5). After the completion of a five-wave bullish structure, we should expect at least a corrective move.
Price has already entered the D1 FVG. Therefore, what we need now is confirmation of a bearish MSS (Market Structure Shift) from the high.
More specifically, during the coming week, I want to see price first sweep above the PDH (Previous Day High). Ideally, price would sweep above the liquidity resting at the 4382 D1 high, followed by a strong bearish Displacement.
If this scenario occurs, it would provide the confirmation we need to begin looking for Sell opportunities.
The downside targets are:
The FVG below, which still needs to be rebalanced.
The liquidity resting below the wave (4) low.
The FVG around 4175.
