Market Structure & Institutional Order Flow

On the H1 timeframe, XAUUSD initiated a macro bullish reversal after clearing the Major Bearish Trendline and testing the Institutional Demand zone (4,010.000 – 4,020.000). The market confirmed strong bullish order flow via multiple Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) prints, easily liquidating the HTF Buy-Side Liquidity pool (4,110.000 – 4,120.000). Price then surged vertically past the major red resistance line (4,200.000), creating an explosive parabolic leg up toward the 4,300.000 handle.

Imbalances & Local Structural Exhaustion

Following the local peak above 4,280.000, momentum shows minor exhaustion as price prints a local bearish BOS/CHoCH on lower timeframes. Current price is trading around 4,269.015, consolidating right above two key Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):

Immediate Upper FVG: Located around 4,250.000 – 4,265.000 (Point A: Retest FVG).

Major Lower FVG: Positioned in the 4,210.000 – 4,235.000 area, directly resting above the key structural support level at 4,200.000.

Pro-SMC Forecast & Execution Strategy

According to the yellow Pro-SMC Forecast Path, a deeper corrective phase is expected before the macro continuation:

Point A (Retest FVG): Price is currently retesting the upper FVG. A minor bounce toward 4,280.000 may offer short-term intraday sell setups.

Point B (Sweep Liquidity): The primary pullback target resides around 4,200.000 – 4,210.000, where price is projected to sweep internal sell-side liquidity ($$$), mitigate the lower FVG, and touch the ascending blue trendline.

Ultimate Target (4,300+): Wait for a bullish CHoCH/BOS confirmation at Point B (4,200.000) to re-enter long positions, targeting the liquidity pool above 4,300.000+.