XAUUSD: 4,260 Holds the Trend

Market Context

Gold continues to be supported by a softer USD, easing inflation pressure, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Expectations of a less aggressive Fed also help keep yields contained, which supports demand for gold.

However, the upcoming NFP release remains the key catalyst. It can easily trigger sharp volatility across USD, yields, and gold.

Key point: the broader trend is still bullish, but 4,260 - 4,280 is the critical defense zone in the short term.

Technical Structure

Gold is trading around 4,272 and remains inside a well-defined upward channel. The bullish structure is still valid, with BOS holding and no clear sign of breakdown yet.

The main decision area is 4,260 - 4,280 (Breakout Retest Zone). As long as this zone holds, momentum favors continuation toward 4,300.

A clean break above 4,300 would unlock further upside toward 4,337, where liquidity is likely to be tested.

On the other hand, if price rejects and loses 4,260, the structure shifts into a corrective phase, with downside potential toward 4,225 - 4,200.

Key Levels

Current Price: 4,272
Breakout Zone: 4,260 - 4,280
Weak High: 4,300
Liquidity Target: 4,337
Correction Zone: 4,225 - 4,200
Main Demand: 4,065 - 4,080
Deep Demand: 4,000 - 4,010
Bullish Bias: Above 4,300
Bearish Shift: Below 4,260

Trading Plan

Buy Setup
Entry: 4,260 - 4,280
SL: Below 4,245
TP: 4,300 / 4,320 / 4,337
Condition: Price holds above 4,260 and forms higher lows, confirming continuation of the bullish structure.

Buy Breakout
Entry: Above 4,300 (after retest)
SL: Below 4,260
TP: 4,320 / 4,337
Condition: Strong breakout followed by successful retest and continuation.

Sell Reaction
Entry: 4,337 rejection
SL: Above 4,360
TP: 4,300 / 4,280 / 4,260
Condition: Liquidity sweep at highs with clear rejection and failure to continue upward.

Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 4,260
SL: Above 4,280
TP: 4,245 / 4,225 / 4,200
Condition: Loss of structure with failed retest of the breakout zone.

Overall Bias

The bullish bias remains intact as long as price holds above 4,260. The upward channel is still respected, and buyers remain in control of the short-term structure.

Holding 4,260 - 4,280 supports continuation toward 4,300 and potentially 4,337. A break below 4,260 would shift the market into a corrective phase.

Best approach: wait for confirmation at 4,260 or a clean breakout above 4,300. Avoid chasing price ahead of NFP volatility.

Will 4,260 continue to hold, or will NFP trigger a deeper correction first?