Market Regime

Chop/Mixed, leaning Risk-On.

Friday’s opening weakness did not develop into a full breakdown. ES, NQ, and YM defended important support, recovered into the close, and extended higher Sunday night. Volatility failed to sustain its opening breakout, credit remained stable, and DXY closed beneath a major long-term level.

The weakness is that market participation remains incomplete. RTY continues lagging, RSP remains weaker than SPY, the S5 breadth indicators lost important levels, and Friday’s ADD/VOLD readings did not confirm the headline-index recovery.

Price Structure

ES held a major support level Friday, recovered VWAP, trend resistance, and its daily moving averages into the close, and has now broken above the recent formation Sunday night. Price is holding an HVN shelf with an LVN below. A possible inverse head-and-shoulders structure is developing, but it still requires acceptance above the breakout area and a successful retest.

NQ produced a similar recovery but remains beneath the major 28,600 area. That level is Monday’s primary polarity test. Acceptance above it would strengthen the bullish case; rejection would suggest Friday’s move was a bounce into former support.

YM recovered with the larger indexes, although its CVD is weaker relative to price. RTY remains the clear laggard and has not reclaimed Friday’s opening price.

Market Internals

Volatility supported the recovery. VIX and VX spiked at Friday’s open but failed above their moving averages, trendlines, EMA clouds, and VWAP before falling sharply into the close.

Breadth was less convincing. ADD and VOLD were weak, cumulative TICK was flat, RSP lagged SPY, and the S5 indicators moved back beneath several important levels.

Credit remains orderly. HYG/LQD moved higher Friday and are consolidating, while KRE and XLF remain range-bound.

Friday’s rise in Treasury yields was a headwind, although yields opened slightly lower Sunday. DXY’s close beneath its major long-term level could become a tailwind if price accepts below rather than immediately reclaiming it.

Leadership

Semiconductors weakened Friday but did not suffer major structural breakdowns. NVDA is now testing the top of an LVN, an HVN shelf, and a daily moving average. SMH, AMD, AVGO, and MU are attempting to bounce from important support structures Sunday night.

Mega-cap leadership remains selective. MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL remain strong, while META, AAPL, and TSLA continue showing weaker structures.

BTC and ETH are also failing to confirm the equity recovery.

What Changed?

Thursday’s strong risk-on reversal remains intact, but Friday exposed incomplete breadth, higher-rate pressure, weaker small-cap participation, and reduced semiconductor momentum.

Sunday’s futures strength improves the setup, but the rebound still requires cash-session confirmation.

Monday I’m Watching
ES holding the reclaimed trendline and HVN shelf.
NQ accepting or rejecting the 28,600 area.
NVDA clearing its overhead HVN and daily moving average.
SMH and the broader semiconductor group holding Sunday’s bounce.
ADD/VOLD improving and RSP beginning to catch SPY.
RTY reclaiming Friday’s opening price.
VIX/VX remaining beneath VWAP and trend resistance.
DXY accepting beneath its major long-term level.
Confidence

Medium.

Price structure is improving, but breadth, small caps, crypto, and portions of technology have not fully confirmed the move.

This is my personal market journal and analysis process - not financial advice.