XAUUSD Weekly Forecast – Bearish Reversal Setup | Liquidity Sweep & 4,160 Target 📉

XAUUSD is showing a strong bullish move into the 4,400–4,425 liquidity/supply area, where price has formed a weak high and started showing signs of potential rejection. The H4 structure remains strong, but the recent liquidity sweep creates an important area to watch for a weekly pullback. A confirmed bearish reaction from this zone could bring price toward 4,250 and eventually the 4,160 target zone. 📊

🔴 Bearish scenario:
If gold fails to hold above the 4,400–4,425 resistance area and H4 candles begin closing lower, sellers could take control. A break below 4,250 would strengthen the bearish setup and expose the next downside target around 4,160. Further weakness below 4,160 could open the way toward 4,040–4,000.

🎯 Bearish targets:
• TP1: 4,250
• TP2: 4,200
• TP3: 4,160
• Extended target: 4,040–4,000

🟢 Bullish scenario:
If buyers reclaim and sustain price above 4,425 with strong H4 closes, the bearish setup would be weakened. A confirmed breakout could push gold toward 4,450 and potentially the 4,480–4,500 region. Traders should look for a breakout followed by a successful retest before assuming further upside continuation.

🎯 Bullish targets:
• TP1: 4,425
• TP2: 4,450
• TP3: 4,480
• Extended target: 4,500+

🔑 Key points:
• 4,400–4,425 is the major liquidity and resistance zone.
• The weak high near the recent top is important for the bearish thesis.
• 4,250 is the first major support and reaction zone.
• 4,160 is the key bearish target highlighted on the chart.
• 4,040–4,000 remains an important deeper demand area.
• H4 confirmation below support would strengthen the selling setup.
• A sustained breakout above 4,425 would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook.
• Watch for rejection candles, lower highs and bearish momentum before entering shorts.
• Avoid chasing large candles; retests can provide better risk-to-reward opportunities.

📌 Trading perspective:
The preferred bearish idea is to wait for confirmation around the 4,400–4,425 supply/liquidity zone and then look for a confirmed H4 breakdown or failed retest. The 4,250 level should be monitored closely because buyers may attempt to defend it. If 4,250 breaks decisively, the path toward 4,200 and 4,160 becomes more attractive.

⚠️ Risk management:
Use the latest H4 swing high or a suitable invalidation level above the resistance zone for bearish trades. Keep position size controlled and consider taking partial profits at intermediate targets. Gold can move rapidly during major U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve-related events, so confirmation and disciplined risk management remain essential.

Overall view: bearish below 4,400–4,425, with 4,250 and 4,160 as the key downside levels. A confirmed breakout above 4,425 would shift the weekly outlook back toward bullish continuation. 📉📈