Structure
- Price is coiling between BSL above (4,166–4,188) and SSL below (3,986–3,944)
- Recent BOS is likely inducement, not confirmation
- POC at 4,063 is the fair value anchor for now
- A larger, untapped liquidity pool sits well below the marked SSL
– The real magnet for the next big move

NFP Setup – Friday, Aug 7
- Forecast: 80K jobs added | Prior: 57K | Range: 40K–157K
- Unemployment: 4.2% forecast, watch for a tick to 4.3%
- Wages YoY: 3.5% forecast

As-expected (75K–95K, unemployment 4.2%)
- Muted reaction, range continues
- Gold likely stays coiled between BSL and SSL – no clean sweep yet
- Wait for the next catalyst

Miss (below 60K, or unemployment ticks to 4.3%+)
- Dollar weakens, gold spikes toward BSL (4,166–4,188)
- Sweep + rejection there → fade back to POC, then toward SSL
- Clean break of 4,205 supply →
- Opens bullish continuation, deeper SSL/pool becomes secondary

Beat (above 110K, unemployment holds/falls)
- Dollar strengthens, gold pressured toward SSL (3,986–3,944)
- Break and hold below 3,944 → exposes the deeper liquidity pool underneath
- Fast reversal off that pool → bullish setup; continuation lower → bearish confirmation

Key levels
- Supply / Resistance FVR – 4,205
- Upper BSL – 4,188
- Lower BSL – 4,166
- POC – 4,063
- Support FVR – 3,986
- SSL – 3,944
- Deeper pool – below 3,944, real decision zone

Trade plan
- No bias until one side is swept with confirmation
- BSL swept + rejected → shorts to POC, reassess for SSL/pool
- SSL swept + reclaimed → longs to POC, reassess for BSL/supply
- Deeper pool tapped → highest-probability reaction point, watch absorption vs rejection
- Stand aside through the NFP spike itself – trade the reaction, not the print in NY session.

Not financial advice – structural framework for education, manage your own risk.
Kwagga