Gold prices (XAU/USD) XAUUSD recorded buying activity for two consecutive days, surging sharply past the psychological $4,100 threshold to touch a near two-week high around the $4,130–$4,135 range during Wednesday's Asian trading session.

A combination of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, a slump in crude oil prices to their lowest level since mid-June, and a weakening US Dollar Index (USD) triggered massive short-covering in the precious metal.

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✅ Geopolitics & Energy: Bessent’s Signals, Axios Report & Oil Plunge (Lowest since June 13)
Escalating back-channel diplomacy successfully triggered a release of the oil risk premium and drastically reduced expectations for exogenous inflation:

- 🔸Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Statement: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Washington and Tehran could potentially reach a formal agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz this Wednesday, moving a five-month-long confrontation toward a phase of normalization.

- 🔸Axios Exclusive Report: Citing senior diplomatic sources, Axios reported that US, Iranian, and Omani negotiators have reached the final stages of an interim deal to guarantee maritime navigation security in the strategic Gulf waterway.

- 🔸Oil Plunges to New Low (Since June 13): The OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas starting in September, combined with talk of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent crude oil prices (WTI/Brent) tumbling to new lows not seen since June 13. This drop in energy prices cooled fears of an inflationary spiral (energy-driven inflation) and undermined the strength of the US Dollar.

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✅ US Macro Perspective: JOLTS Job Openings (7.36 Million) & Hawkish Rhetoric from Schmid and Paulson
Despite easing energy inflation pressures, the resilience of the US labour market limits the scope for a significant US Dollar correction:

- 🔸JOLTS Job Openings Data (7.36 Million): The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for June, released last Tuesday, showed a slight decline to 7.36 million but remained firmly above the historical average from the previous year. This figure demonstrates that the US labour market is maintaining a stable footing.

- 🔸Support for Tightening from Schmid & Paulson: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson have publicly reiterated the need for tighter monetary policy to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target.

- 🔸North American Session Catalysts Tonight: Market attention tonight will focus on the release of two key US macro data points: the ADP Private Employment Report (19:15 WIB) and the US ISM Services PMI (21:00 WIB), ahead of the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
From a technical standpoint, a sharp surge pushed gold through the psychological $4,100 barrier, confirming a breakout from a two-week consolidation structure:

- 🔸Bullish Breakout Confirmation: Gold's successful move to reclaim and close above the $4,100 level has shifted the daily bias to one of complete buyer dominance (bullish dominance). As long as $4,100 holds as new support (resistance-turned-support), the path of least resistance points upward.

- 🔸Acceleration Target: A clean break above the $4,140–$4,145 supply barrier would pave the way for an upward expansion toward testing the next macro peak area at $4,215.