Gold is trying to rebuild bullish momentum after defending the lower reaction area near 4,050. From Kelly’s view, the chart is showing an early Elliott recovery structure, but buyers still need confirmation above the short-term resistance before the next upside wave becomes stronger.

The key idea is simple: gold is recovering, but the clean bullish continuation needs price to hold above support and confirm the next wave 4 base.

⟡ Market structure

The chart shows gold previously rejected from the 4,160 area and moved lower inside a corrective structure. However, price has now reacted from the lower base and started forming a new short-term bullish sequence.

Current price is around 4,065. The nearest support is around 4,048–4,055, where buyers have already shown reaction. If gold continues to hold above this zone, the next important area to watch is the 4,085–4,090 zone marked as “Buy wave 4 after the price confirms.”

A clean break and hold above this zone may open the path towards the 4,110–4,115 resistance first. If bullish momentum expands, gold may continue towards the larger wave 5 target around 4,160–4,165.

➤ Key levels

◌ 4,048–4,055: short-term support and current recovery base
◌ 4,065: current price reaction area
◌ 4,085–4,090: buy wave 4 confirmation zone
◌ 4,110–4,115: nearest resistance and breakout checkpoint
◌ 4,160–4,165: major resistance and possible wave 5 target
◌ Below 4,040: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken

⌁ Elliott Wave view

From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may be forming a new bullish 5-wave structure after the recent correction.

Wave 1 has started from the lower base.
Wave 2 created a pullback but did not fully break the recovery structure.
Wave 3 may develop if price breaks above 4,085–4,090 with strength.
Wave 4 may later retest that area as support.
Wave 5 could then extend towards 4,160–4,165, where the chart marks the upper target zone.

This is why Kelly is watching confirmation carefully. The bullish view is improving, but the market still needs to prove that the recovery is not only a small corrective bounce.

▸ Trading scenario

Preferred scenario: wait for gold to confirm above the 4,085–4,090 area, then look for bullish continuation.

Entry zone: 4,085–4,090 after confirmation or retest
Aggressive buy zone: 4,048–4,055 only if bullish reaction appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed swing low or below 4,040
Take profit 1: 4,110–4,115
Take profit 2: 4,160–4,165
Take profit 3: higher only if wave 5 breaks with strong momentum

Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,040 with strong bearish pressure, the bullish Elliott structure weakens. In that case, price may return to a deeper support area before forming a new recovery base.

⌁ Kelly’s view

For Kelly, gold is showing a bullish recovery structure, but confirmation is still the main condition. The strongest setup is not to chase the current price, but to wait for price to reclaim the wave 4 confirmation zone.

Gold is building a bullish Elliott structure.
If buyers hold support and confirm above 4,085–4,090, the next wave may continue towards 4,110 and 4,160.

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