ETH is right now at one of the most critical structural points in its entire bear market trend.

Since BTC put in its top at $126,000 in October 2025, ETH also put in its first macro lower high in October 2025, following its own cycle top in August 2025. Once ETH's macro lower high was established in October 2025, the bear market began. Since then it has developed some incredible market structure.

The Angle of Descent
Since October, ETH has followed a near perfect angle of descent on the log scale, with each high established right at the upper black trendline I have outlined.

October 2025: $4,760
January 2026: $3,405
May 2026: $2,424
July 2026: $1,945

Each of these represents a macro or short term lower high forming precisely at that trendline.

The Retest
When the most recent retest on July 15th was occurring, it aligned exactly with my weekly legacy trendline from this idea:

Following that retest, price was able to breakout above the trendline that had shown significant selling pressure at every prior test. Now that price has been trading above the trendline, market participants have started using it as a new level of demand instead. I have this marked on the chart as "Retest in Progress" with green arrows. This is a significant shift in the trend and could be forming the base before the next major move to the upside.

The Bitcoin Parallel
I had a past Bitcoin idea outlining this exact same structure that dates back to March 2026, and Bitcoin has already played out its version of this structure in the precise way I am now expecting ETH to follow (breakout + retest = expansion). Review the following idea I am about to publish to get full context on that, which I will also link in the comments once it is finished.

The One Remaining Hurdle
The only other hurdle is the daily RSI. Trend momentum needs to break back above the red box outlined on the chart into overbought conditions to confirm that momentum is truly flipping and that the bear market low could already be established.

Why ETH May Have Already Bottomed
I outlined this theory of ETH's bear market low potentially already being in place, since ETH's tops and bottoms tend to differ slightly from Bitcoin's cyclical four year pattern. Those related ideas can be found here:

Even if Bitcoin has not yet formed its bear market low and still has further to go in Q4 2026, it is likely that ETH has already formed its own low given the current market structure. In that scenario, ETH would likely form a higher low even if Bitcoin continues lower toward the back half of the year, so keep that in mind.

If that plays out, the black trendline outlined in this post will likely play a significant role in where that higher low ultimately forms.