Fundamental Outlook

USDTHB is expected to trade within a volatile range after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that negotiations with Iran will begin on Monday. The easing of supply concerns pushed oil prices down to their lowest level in three weeks, helping reduce inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could adopt a more hawkish monetary policy, limiting the upside of the U.S. dollar.

Market participants are also closely watching today's U.S. Manufacturing PMI releases from both S&P Global and ISM for further clues on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

If the U.S. Manufacturing PMI comes in above expectations, it could support the U.S. dollar and push USDTHB higher. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected reading may weigh on the dollar, causing USDTHB to decline in the short term.

Technical Outlook

USDTHB remains in a Sideway to Bearish trend after extending its recent decline and failing to reclaim the Down Trend Line. The pair is currently trading around the key support zone of 33.32–33.30, while the short-term structure has yet to establish a Higher High, indicating that the market is still waiting for a clearer directional breakout.

If USDTHB rebounds, breaks above the Down Trend Line, and holds firmly above 33.45, it would provide a bullish signal with potential to extend gains toward 33.50, the target of the Bullish Scenario.

Risk Scenario

As long as USDTHB remains below the 33.45 resistance and continues trading beneath the Down Trend Line, downside risks are likely to persist. A break below 33.30 could accelerate selling pressure, opening the door for a move toward 33.27 and 33.25, which are the targets of the Bearish Scenario.

In addition, Thailand's SET Index is expected to open slightly higher, supported by gains in U.S. equities and a lower VIX Index. At the same time, a weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could support the Thai baht and encourage foreign fund inflows, increasing downward pressure on USDTHB.

Target Price: 33.45–33.50
Support: 33.30–33.27
Cut Loss: 33.24