The rand has managed to regain all its losses after the SARB rate pause and then some. The rand was afforded the room to move following the Yen-tervention last week coupled with a bout of risk-on sentiment in anticipation of a MOU between the US and Iran, which has weakened the broad-based dollar index.

The pair has fallen below the critical support levels at 16.54 (200-day MA) and 16.41 (50-day MA) and has settled just above the 61.8% Fibo retracement of 16.25. Tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls for June could be a catalyst for another leg higher in the DXY which will see the USDZAR pair re-test the 16.50 handle as the 200-day MA and 50-day MA swings from a support to a resistance. The payroll print will have to be higher than expected for this move to play out as it will increase the bets for a possible Fed rate hike in September.

A weaker than expected payroll print will however allow the rand to re-test the red support range below 16.25 which has kept the rand at bay since March this year.