Setup:

RKLB trades around $80, up nearly 6% today and back above its 200 EMA (blue line) after retesting the $60 support zone, a level that's held multiple times since April. Reports Q2 2026 earnings Monday, August 10, after market close, the first call since a hard 2028 deadline got attached to Neutron via a new Space Force contract.

Why the fundamentals support the setup:

- Revenue consensus: $231.6M (+60% YoY)
- 14 analysts rate it Buy, average target $111
- $663M in fresh Space Force contracts secured in the nine days leading into this report
- Record 21 launches with 100% mission success in 2025, streak continuing through 13 successful launches in 2026
- Still trading nearly 50% below its all-time high of $151

Worth flagging as a risk to the setup:

This earnings call is the first time management has to publicly address whether Neutron's Q4 2026 debut timeline still holds, now that a major contract (the largest satellite manufacturing award in company history) explicitly depends on it. Any slip in that timeline is the clearest thing that could invalidate a bullish read here.

Bias: Long.

The reclaim of the 200 EMA right off a multi-touch $60 support level is real confluence.

First target $104, a former support level from the June-July decline.

Second target $120, the next resistance zone above that.

Invalidated on a close back below $60.

Timeframe:

Event-driven swing into and through the August 10 report.