█ SETUP

AFL · 12H · long only.
(Context: Aflac — supplemental health / Japan–US insurance beta — trades with financials risk appetite and yen/Japan income flows, not a discretionary “buy the insurer” call.)

ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1/4, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.

Strategy Tester (AFL 12H):
Win rate 76% · profit factor 2.5 · max drawdown 25%
Avg winning trade +14.4% · avg losing trade −7.7%
Typical hold ~77×12H bars on winners — insurance mean-reversion grid on the 12H Averaging template · 372-trade sample

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█ WHY NOW

Fresh 12H ALMA long on the 6 Aug 13:30 UTC bar ~$125.83 — lot 1 of 4.

Bar-close arm into a quiet financials tape, not a size-up on a guidance headline. Hard stop −10% from fill ~$113.2. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop. Scale-in stays 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, if lower bars qualify.

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█ MACRO

Sector: AFL = supplemental insurance (Japan-heavy premium mix + US) — beta to Japan household income / yen path and US financials risk appetite more than a single Mag7 print.

Tape (5–6 Aug): daily board tagged bull FVG raids/enters around ~$125.2–125.6 into the fill; early-Aug US financials mixed while Japan/yen noise stayed in the background. Execution is 12H ALMA Averaging on the fill bar — not a Japan GDP, rate, or buyback forecast.

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█ OUTLOOK

Positive factors
- Tester: 76% WR · PF 2.5 · avg win +14.4% vs avg loss −7.7% (avg RR 1.9) · 372-trade sample — hit-rate edge with bounded −10% stop
- ALMA — 4H / 1D already long: 4H LONG · L:3 vs LAvg:4.2 · 1D LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.9 — execution clocks on the long side into the first lot (young on 1D)
- SMC — daily demand: 1D FVG Enter Bull / Raid Bull ~$125.2–125.6 (4–5 Aug) · bounce up B56–57% · break down Br43–44% (n=1347–1615) — mild bounce-up hold skew at the fill

Negative factors
- EMA — whole ladder Above and time-stretched long: 4H Above · Cur L:66 vs Avg L:12.4 · 1D L:33 vs 11.5 · 3D L:16 vs 12.0 · 1W L:19 vs 24.6 — slow clocks already extended above EMA; mean-reversion longs here are late vs a deep discount
- ALMA — weekly OVERHEAT-L: 1W LONG · L:7 vs LAvg:3.8 · OVERHEAT-L — slow band stretched long into a first-lot chase risk
- ALMA — 3D still SHORT young: 3D SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:3.0 — intermediate grid not flipped with the 12H long
- First lot only (1 of 4) — thin cushion if the 12H bar fails

Takeaway: 12H ALMA + 76% WR / 1.9 avg RR still justify a first-lot arm near ~$126 with daily bounce-up skew at the bull FVG (56–57 / 43–44) and weekly bounce-up shelf ~$112 (61/39), but a fully Above-EMA / weekly OVERHEAT-L backdrop and young 3D/LTF SHORT clocks keep this a repair grind on already-extended insurance beta — not a deep discount reclaim; risk stays on the −10% hard stop / Pine exit path.

Base case: 12H ALMA holds · bounce-up at ~$125 demand digests higher if financials stabilize · qualifying adds only on lower closes the template allows.

Bear case: break down through the ~$125 bull FVG pocket · 12H ALMA flips · −10% from ~$125.83 toward ~$113 (weekly bounce-up shelf still frames the stop zone) · Japan/financials gap through the cash book.

Chart: AFL 12H — ALMA Averaging Strategy.

Educational idea. Live position — past backtest ≠ future results. NFA.