#XAUUSD 🪙
Current Price: 4341

🔥 You are reading one of the most important Gold analyses of the last 200 days.

If you are looking for a major turning point in Gold, follow this analysis to the end. Price has reached a critical area that could determine the next thousands of pips in the market.

On July 13, the key weekly support at 4055 was broken. From that point, my long-term bias on Gold turned bearish. After the breakout, the market entered a pullback toward major selling areas, especially 4273 and 4365.

During this pullback, buyers naturally stepped in and used the bullish move to capture short-term opportunities. Then, on August 4, buyers broke the 1H resistance at 4088. After the pullback into 4069, the main buyer order area, a bullish 1H structure was formed.

The upside targets were:

✅ 4117
✅ 4212
✅ 4365

All three targets were reached, and the third target, 4365, was successfully hit on August 7.

🔥 Now the market is at a very critical point.

Price has reached the major daily resistance at 4365 — a level I have been waiting for months to see Gold reach.

This is no longer an ordinary buying area. This is where the major battle between buyers and sellers can determine the next major move.

📌 Buyers should seriously consider taking partial profits around this area. Chasing buys directly into such a major daily resistance carries significantly higher risk.

My long-term bias remains bearish, because the weekly support at 4055 has already been broken and price has now reached the major daily resistance at 4365.

🔻 My current position:
I currently have a small short position from the 4365 area. I am keeping the position small until the main confirmation appears. If the confirmation is triggered, I will consider adding the main position.

📌 First confirmation:
I am watching 4333 on the 5-minute timeframe. A break of 4333 with a bearish structure shift would be my first confirmation that sellers are gaining control. After that, I will look for a pullback and a proper setup to increase my short position.

🎯 Bearish targets if 4365 holds:

🔻 4204
🔻 3963
🔻 3694
🔻 3452

However, there is another very important condition.

For the bearish scenario to gain stronger confirmation on the 1H timeframe, sellers also need to break 4266 and take control of that level from buyers.

🟢 Bullish Scenario

If buyers manage to break 4365 on the daily timeframe and successfully complete a pullback and hold above this level, the current bearish scenario will be invalidated.

In that case, the next bullish targets would be:

🟢 4497
🟢 4769
🟢 4951
🟢 5590
🟢 6149

⚠️ 4365 is now one of the most important levels on my Gold chart.

Holding this resistance could be the beginning of a major bearish move. Breaking it, followed by a successful daily pullback, could completely change the market structure and open the way toward much higher prices.

For now, I am watching two things very closely:

4365 — major daily resistance
4333 — first 5M bearish confirmation
4266 — important 1H confirmation for the bearish scenario

No bias, no emotion — let the market confirm the direction.

Time will reveal everything.

Merlin Gold 🏅