XAUUSD: Bulls Still in Control, But 4,245 Is the Line in the Sand

Market Context

Gold continues to attract strong buying interest for the fourth consecutive session as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease, reducing safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. This shift is adding pressure on the USD and supporting gold’s upside momentum.

At the same time, cooling inflation expectations are reinforcing the view that the Fed may not need to stay aggressive for much longer. Lower rate hike expectations are keeping yields soft, which is another tailwind for gold.

However, the market is not in a clean trend environment. Friday’s NFP remains the key catalyst ahead, and it has the potential to completely reset sentiment across USD, yields, and gold.

Bottom line: trend is bullish, but liquidity risk is high into NFP.

Technical Structure

Gold is currently trading around 4,267 after a strong impulsive move from the lower demand base. The structure remains bullish with a clear Break of Structure (BOS), confirming that buyers are still in control in the short-term.

Price is now consolidating above the 4,245 support zone, which is the most important level on the chart right now. This is the Buy Scalping zone and the last defense for bulls before any deeper correction begins.

As long as price holds above 4,245, the market remains in bullish continuation mode, targeting the Weak High at 4,300.

A clean break above 4,300 would open the door for further upside expansion into higher liquidity zones.

If 4,245 fails, the structure shifts into correction mode, with downside potential toward the 4,150 – 4,165 Breakout Demand Zone.

Key Levels

Current Price: 4,267
Buy Scalping Zone: 4,245
Weak High Target: 4,300
Breakout Demand Zone: 4,150 – 4,165
BOS Retest Demand: 4,065 – 4,080
Lower Support Base: 4,045 – 4,060
Deep Demand Zone: 4,000 – 4,020
Bullish Continuation: Above 4,300
Bearish Risk: Below 4,245

Trading Plan

Buy Scenario

Entry: 4,245 on bullish reaction
SL: Below 4,220
TP: 4,280 / 4,300 / 4,320

Condition: Price must defend 4,245 with clear rejection and maintain higher lows. As long as this level holds, buyers remain in control.

Buy Breakout

Entry: Above 4,300 after breakout + retest
SL: Below 4,245
TP: 4,320 / 4,340 / 4,360

Condition: Strong breakout above Weak High, followed by successful retest. Avoid chasing impulsive candles, especially before NFP.

Buy Re-entry

Entry: 4,150 – 4,165
SL: Below 4,080
TP: 4,245 / 4,280 / 4,300

Condition: Deeper pullback into demand zone with clear bullish reaction. This is the optimal re-entry if market flushes liquidity before continuation.

Sell Reaction

Entry: 4,300 rejection
SL: Above 4,330
TP: 4,267 / 4,245 / 4,220

Condition: Weak rejection at highs without follow-through. This is corrective only unless structure breaks below 4,245.

Breakdown Sell

Entry: Below 4,245 + retest failure
SL: Above 4,267
TP: 4,220 / 4,180 / 4,165

Condition: Loss of 4,245 support with failed retest. This confirms short-term shift into correction phase.

Overall Bias

Gold remains bullish as long as price holds above 4,245. The structure is still controlled by buyers, and momentum favors continuation toward 4,300.

However, the market is approaching a high-impact event (NFP), so volatility risk is elevated. This is not a time to chase price blindly.

Key decision zone: 4,245
Key breakout trigger: 4,300

If 4,245 holds → continuation higher
If 4,245 breaks → deeper correction toward 4,150 – 4,165

Final thought: buyers are in control, but NFP will decide whether this is continuation or distribution.