US100: Bullish Momentum vs. Bearish Structure – The 30,341.29 Junction

Market Context:
Following a Bearish BOS (Break of Structure) from the June highs (30,776.38), US100 has staged a powerful recovery since the recent low (27,048.49). Driven by MSFT earnings and geopolitical headlines, the short-term "flow" (EMAs) has turned bullish with a Golden Cross, and price is currently holding above the 200 EMA (Red). However, I view this move strictly as a "relief rally" until the master structure is reclaimed.

Trading Strategy:
I prioritize "Structure over Flow." While the momentum is undeniably strong, the overarching downtrend remains intact as long as the primary swing high at 30,341.29 acts as resistance. I am not swayed by minor local spikes like 29,929.64; I am strictly watching this master pivot to determine the market's true intent.

Action Plan:
Currently staying flat (no position); observing for structural validation.

Bullish Confirmation:
A clean body break and hold above 30,341.29 would invalidate the bearish retracement thesis, shifting focus toward the previous major peaks (30,681 – 30,776).

Structural Rejection:
If price fails to reclaim 30,341.29 or begins to consolidate sideways, I will view it as exhaustion. A breakdown back below the EMAs would signal a resumption of the bearish framework toward 28,890.95 and potentially 28,205.46.

Bottom Line:
Don't mistake a change in momentum for a change in trend. The real test for US100 lies at 30,341.29. I refuse to chase political noise and remain neutral until the "Master Structure" is either broken or confirmed.

#US100 #NAS100 #Nasdaq100