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Piyasa

This Week's Review and Next Week's Gold Forecast

This Week's Review and Next Week's Gold Forecast

This week, spot gold experienced a typical wide-range fluctuation. At the beginning of the week, it continued to rise, testing the 4110-4120 range before encountering resistance. Short-term bulls and bears then engaged in a tug-of-war. Although there was a brief rebound mid-week, the price fell back under pressure on Friday, ultimately resulting in another bearish candlestick for the week.

Throughout the week, the price fluctuated wildly within the 3995-4120 range, exhibiting a rollercoaster-like movement of "rise-pullback-rebound-fallback," indicating that short-term market divergence remains significant.

Encouragingly, we achieved complete success this week through accurate predictions, primarily due to our grasp of the gold market trend. We consistently trade with the trend and strictly control trading frequency. We analyze key support and resistance areas daily, trading only within key price ranges. This is the secret to our success.

Next week's US non-farm payroll and inflation data will be key indicators for market movements. If employment resilience exceeds expectations and interest rate hike expectations rise again, gold prices will continue to face downward pressure. Conversely, if employment weakens again and inflation declines, it will open up further upside potential for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, this week's weekly chart closed lower again, indicating a significant weakening of bullish momentum. The 4120-4170 level has formed a strong short-term resistance zone. If gold prices cannot effectively break through this level, the subsequent rebound will be difficult to sustain. On the daily chart, gold prices are fluctuating around the middle Bollinger Band, without a clear directional trend signal. The overall market remains in a typical consolidation phase, and short-term trading is more inclined towards range-bound trading.

From the 4-hour chart, gold is currently in the final stages of a triangle pattern. I believe gold will break out of this range within one to two weeks. From an overall trend perspective, gold is highly likely to rebound, as there is significant buying support after multiple tests of the lower area, coupled with continued strong buyer confidence.

For short-term trading next week, the first key resistance level to watch is 4085-4100, followed by this week's high of 4120 and the previous rebound high of 4170. Only if the price firmly establishes itself above 4170 can the bulls reopen further upside potential.

On the downside, the first short-term support level to watch is 4020-4030, with the next crucial support level being the psychological and practical support at the psychological level of 4000. A strong break below 4000 would likely target the 3960-3940 range, a key test of the previous low point in the current medium-term bullish-bearish struggle.

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