Gold begins the new trading week with a modest recovery after last week's sharp volatility driven by stronger-than-expected US employment data. The robust Non-Farm Payrolls reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates restrictive for longer, supporting the US Dollar and limiting upside for Gold.

The M30 structure shows buyers attempting to recover after defending the 4,050–4,055 Fibonacci 0.618 retracement zone, but price remains trapped beneath a descending trendline that has capped every recovery since last week's high.

From an ICT perspective, this recovery still looks corrective rather than impulsive.

The recent rebound has not yet produced a decisive Break of Structure (BOS), meaning sellers still retain short-term control while Smart Money may be engineering liquidity before the next expansion.

Key Technical Levels

Resistance

Descending Trendline
FVG Supply: 4,098–4,103
Previous Swing High: 4,078–4,080

Support

Fibonacci 0.618: 4,050–4,055
Demand Zone: 4,020–4,025
Major HTF Demand: 3,995–4,000

Trading Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario

If buyers defend the 0.618 retracement and break above the descending trendline, Gold could revisit:

4,080 → 4,100 → FVG Supply

A successful BOS above trendline would invalidate the current bearish correction.

🔴 Bearish Scenario

Failure to break the trendline could attract fresh institutional selling.

Price may sweep recent intraday highs before rotating toward:

4,050 → 4,020 → 4,000

That would complete another liquidity cycle before higher-timeframe buyers step back into the market.

Conclusion

The current rebound should be treated as a reaction rather than confirmation.

As long as Gold remains beneath the descending trendline, patience is warranted.

The next high-probability opportunity will likely come after Smart Money reveals whether this recovery is a genuine breakout—or simply another liquidity trap.

💬 Do you expect Gold to reclaim the trendline this week, or is this rally just another bull trap before revisiting $4,020?