Gold is being compressed between the falling resistance line and the upward sloping support zone, forming a wedge pattern while the main trend is still tilted down. Recent recoveries all stopped at lower levels, showing that buyers are not strong enough to change the structure.

Zone 4.035–4.045 is the decisive point. If XAUUSD closes the H1 candle below this area and the retest fails, the pattern will be confirmed to break, extending selling pressure to the 4,000 mark, then towards the main target around 3,970.846.

Selling observation zone: Retest 4,035–4,050 after breakdown
Close target: 4,000
Main target: 3,970,846
Invalid: H1 closed clearly above 4,100

When the support of the model is penetrated, the current sideways rhythm will likely end with a new decline.