Gold Extends Rally Past Supply Zone, Targets 4,384 Extension
The 1H XAUUSD chart continues to validate the bullish scenario laid out following the earlier trend line breakout. Price confirmed a decisive Bullish Breakout above both the descending trend line and the Strong Supply/Resistance zone spanning 4,166 to 4,217 — a level that had capped price action for over a week.
This breakout carried strong conviction, with price completing its impulsive leg (marked "DONE") and clearing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 4,217.542 without significant hesitation. A minor CHoCH (Change of Character) marked a brief pause in momentum, leading to a shallow pullback before buyers stepped back in.
Currently trading at 4,307.295, up modestly on the session, price has resumed its upward trajectory, now pushing toward the Intermediate Resistance level near 4,360. This steady grind higher, following a confirmed breakout and successful retest of former resistance as support, reflects continued bullish control in the market structure.
The projected path points toward the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at 4,384.253 as the next major objective — a level that would represent a significant extension beyond the recent supply zone breakout, potentially opening the door to further upside exploration if momentum holds.
From a risk management perspective, the key invalidation level is a break back below the 0.618 Fibonacci level (4,217.542). Such a move would suggest the bullish structure has weakened and could bring the Strong Supply/Resistance zone back into play as resistance.
For now, structure strongly favors continued upside, with the breakout confirmed and price maintaining higher lows on the path toward the 4,384 target.
Do you think gold will reach the 4,384 extension smoothly, or will we see resistance build near the Intermediate Resistance level first?