Gold remains supported near a seven-week high as a softer US dollar and lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Falling oil prices and optimism surrounding a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have also eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for aggressive monetary tightening.

US private payrolls increased by only 44,000 in July, while June job openings remained broadly stable at 7.4 million. Attention now shifts to the official US employment report on August 7, which could create renewed volatility across the dollar, yields and XAUUSD.

Technical Analysis

On the 4H chart, XAUUSD has broken decisively above the institutional descending trendline and expanded through the 4,195–4,210 mitigation block.

Price remains significantly above the EMA 34 near 4,126 and EMA 89 near 4,092, confirming strong bullish alignment. However, the distance from both averages shows that the current displacement is becoming extended.

RSI is holding near 75, above the overbought threshold. Momentum remains controlled by buyers, but the elevated reading increases the probability of consolidation or a corrective repricing after nearby liquidity is collected.

The MACD panel is not visible on the chart, so no live crossover can be confirmed. A contracting positive histogram or bearish crossover would provide additional confirmation if price rejects from premium territory.

Important Key Levels

Buy-side liquidity: 4,300–4,320
Major distribution zone: 4,355–4,375
Mitigation block: 4,195–4,210
Discount re-accumulation: 4,148–4,165
EMA support: 4,090–4,126

Trading Scenario

My primary scenario is a final bullish liquidity run toward 4,300–4,320 while price maintains acceptance above the mitigation block.

Sustained acceptance above 4,320 could support an extension into the 4,355–4,375 major distribution zone.

Because RSI is already overbought, I would avoid chasing the current expansion. A liquidity sweep followed by rejection, RSI returning below 70 and bearish MACD confirmation could initiate a corrective move toward 4,195–4,210, followed by 4,148–4,165 if the pullback develops further.

Buy/Sell Condition

Bullish condition: Price holds above 4,195–4,210 and establishes acceptance beyond the buy-side liquidity pool.

Corrective condition: Rejection from 4,300–4,320 or the major distribution zone, combined with weakening RSI and bearish MACD momentum, could support a retracement toward institutional support.

Overall View

The institutional trendline breakout and bullish EMA alignment confirm strong buyer control, but RSI near 75 shows that XAUUSD is entering an increasingly expensive area.

My focus is on a possible final liquidity sweep before the market begins a controlled correction toward the mitigation or re-accumulation zones.

Do you expect XAUUSD to sweep 4,320 before retracing, or extend directly toward the major distribution zone?