Gold Breaks Out As Projected, Eyes Extension Toward 4,384
The 4H XAUUSD chart delivers a satisfying confirmation of the bullish triangle breakout scenario outlined earlier. Price had been compressing within a symmetrical triangle, squeezed between a descending trend line and rising support built off the Protected Swing Low / Major Demand zone near 3,948–3,957, with a key FVG zone near 4,010–4,035 anchoring the base.
That compression resolved exactly as anticipated — price broke decisively above the trend line, confirmed by a fresh BOS and CHoCH sequence, and accelerated straight into the Strong Supply/Resistance zone between 4,165 and 4,205. This impulsive leg is now marked "DONE," having reached a high near 4,282 before pulling back slightly.
Currently trading at 4,268.225, up 0.49% on the session, price is consolidating just above this supply zone, digesting the strong breakout move. This kind of pause after a decisive structural break is a normal Smart Money Concepts pattern, often preceding a retracement into key Fibonacci levels before the next leg.
The projected path suggests a corrective pullback toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 4,217.542, offering a lower-risk continuation entry if buyers step back in. Should this level hold, the next major objective becomes the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at 4,384.253 — a significant target that would mark fresh territory well beyond the recent supply zone.
From a risk management perspective, the key invalidation level is a decisive break below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (4,166.045). Such a move would suggest the breakout has weakened significantly and could open the door for a deeper retest of the FVG zone below.
For now, structure strongly favors continued bullish momentum following this confirmed breakout, with traders watching for a clean pullback to the 0.618 level before targeting the 4,384 extension.
Do you think gold will pull back to 4,217 before continuing, or will it push straight through toward 4,384?