Over the past few weeks, market crash discussions have become increasingly common.

From a technical perspective, QQQ (Nasdaq) is finally beginning to show what I would consider the first meaningful signs of weakness after an extended advance.

That doesn't automatically make me bearish.

My current view is that the market appears overextended based on my study of price action. At the same time, I see no reason to assume the uptrend is over simply because signs of weakness have started to appear. The market can still absorb this and continue making new highs.

I've outlined three higher-probability scenarios on the attached TradingView analysis. This work is based primarily on the monthly timeframe, so the discussion is naturally longer-term than my day-to-day trading decisions.

On the other hand, my daily timeframe still hasn't convinced me to abandon the bullish side completely. In fact, I continue to believe next week could be an important period. If buyers return with convincing strength, I still see the potential for another sustained bullish phase similar to what we witnessed between April and June 2026.

Until the market provides clearer evidence, I'm staying on the sidelines.

One distinction I always try to make is between being an investor and being a trader.

If the longer-term bearish scenario eventually unfolds, investors may have to endure months—or even years—before seeing meaningful recovery. That's simply part of long-term investing.

My approach is different.

I don't need to predict where the market will be months from now. I only need to identify where institutional participation is actually becoming visible. Whether that flow develops on the bullish side or the bearish side doesn't matter to me. I'll participate only after the market provides evidence—not before.

The journal continues.