QQQ is attempting to transition from a liquidation rebound into a tradable recover

• Neutral-bullish early in the week & conditional
  
• Still in a daily downtrend
  

Monday–Tuesday

• Relief bid tests $690–$700, helped by lower oil & modestly positive Sunday futures
  

Tuesday night–Wednesday

• AMD & SPCX determine whether the semi/AI rebound broadens or fails
  

Friday's NFP determines whether yields validate or reverse the equity recovery

The QQQ range is approximately $668–$704, matching both the 7 August option-implied move & the major technical boundaries

• A weekly close above $700–$703 would materially improve the outlook & a daily close below $674–$675 would indicate the rebound is failing
  

1. Controlled rebound into resistance (45%)

• $688 → $693 → $699–$704
  

2. Range/base development (30%)

• $675–$700
  

3. Rejection & renewed downside (25%)

• $696–$700 rejection → $680 → $668/$661
  

Monday

• 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing PMI
  
• The most market-sensitive components will be prices paid, employment & new orders
  
• Strong headline + elevated prices — yields higher, initially negative for QQQ & supportive of SPY cyclicals
  
• Weak headline + falling prices — yields lower, supportive of duration & QQQ
  
• Weak growth + high prices — stagflationary, the worst combination for equities
  
• After the close — PLTR earnings
  
• Given its AI exposure & valuation, the result will affect AI sentiment, but AMD remains the more important index-level semi catalyst (link to full analysis in bio)
  
• The post-FOMC market is highly sensitive to policy interpretation, any emphasis on inflation persistence or labor-market strength in Lisa Cook's speech could move yields
  

Tuesday

• 10:00 AM — JOLTS job openings
  
• This matters because the market is currently interpreting strong labor data as potentially hawkish
  
• Hot JOLTS — upside pressure on yields; likely QQQ headwind
  
• Softer JOLTS without a collapse in hiring — best outcome for growth stocks
  
• Abrupt deterioration — yields may fall, but recession risk could pressure IWM
  
• After the close — AMD & SPCX (link to full analysis in bio)
  
• This is the most important earnings window for QQQ this week
  
• AMD will determine whether the recent semi liquidation was an exhaustion event that created value, or the start of a broader AI hardware de-rating
  
• For QQQ, AMD’s guidance, data-center growth, margins & accelerator demand matter more than the headline EPS beat
  
• SPCX adds another high-beta AI/capital-expenditure read-through
  

Wednesday

• 10:00 AM — ISM Services
  
• Services prices & employment are particularly important because the Fed remains concerned about inflation persistence
  
• LLY earnings
  
• This is more important for SPY than QQQ due to its index weight & healthcare exposure
  
• Wednesday could produce the week’s largest gap because it combines AMD/SPCX reactions with ISM Services
  

Thursday

• 8:30 AM — Preliminary productivity & unit labor costs
  
• Higher productivity & contained labor costs would be a favorable combination
  
• Supports earnings margins, reduces inflation pressure & helps cap yields
  
• Weak productivity with high unit labor costs would be negative for both bonds & growth multiples
  

Friday

• 8:30 AM — July employment report
  
• Current published consensus is approximately +83,000 nonfarm payrolls & unemployment around 4.2%–4.3%
  
• This is the most important macro event of the week
  
• 40K–100K, unemployment stable — yields↓, QQQ bullish
  
• Above 150K with firm wages — yields↑, QQQ vulnerable, SPY may initially outperform
  
• Negative/near-zero jobs with unemployment jump — yields fall sharply, initial QQQ bounce possible, then growth scare
  
• Soft payrolls with contained wages — yields lower. most favorable for duration/growth
  
• The Fed’s recent hold was interpreted as hawkish & inflation remains elevated, so an upside payroll surprise risks reviving rate-hike expectations
  

The stronger RTY futures reading early Sunday is encouraging after IWM’s Friday underperformance, but Sunday liquidity is thin & the signal requires confirmation during Monday’s cash session

• Oil is falling sharply amid signs of possible US–Iran de-escalation & reports that Washington paused contemplated military action
  
• Gulf markets also responded positively Sunday
  
• That is supportive because lower oil reduces near-term inflation anxiety, removes pressure from long-duration assets, improves the odds that yields stabilize & helps rate-sensitive small caps
  
• However, Iran has disputed parts of the reported diplomatic progress, so oil remains an event-driven risk rather than a resolved catalyst
  

The weekly primary trend remains bullish

• QQQ is above its rising weekly averages, well above the prior major breakout near $637 & approximately 8% below the $748.65 high
  
• The weekly chart is undergoing an intermediate correction vs secular trend reversal
  
• $661–$675 correction demand
  
• $637–$650 major weekly support & rising intermediate average
  
• $700–$713 is former value & structural resistance
  
• A weekly close below $637–$641 would represent much more serious technical deterioration
  

The daily structure remains bearish given lower high & lower low, price below declining 20d & 50d averages

• The bounce from $661 is a meaningful LTF reversal, but QQQ still must reclaim ~$697 or the 20d EMA
  
• ~$701 is the 50d & hourly long-term average
  
• $709–$713 is the prior breakdown area & volume-profile resistance
  
• The highest-volume overhead area is around $710–$713
  
• Even after reclaiming $700, QQQ would face another substantial supply area there
  

The hourly structure is improving

• Sell-side sweep at $661.14, displacement to approximately $692, higher low near $682–$684 & short MA turning upward, but Friday’s rally stalled below $692–$700
  
• Means the hourly MSS is intact while above $680–$682, but the larger hourly trend isn't bullish until QQQ accepts above $693 & then $700
  

SPY is the strongest index structurally

• It closed above the 20d average near $743, the 50d average near $739 & back inside its former value region
  
• SPY’s main resistance is $747–$750
  
• Support $739–$743, then $732–$734 → $725
  
• SPY’s structure argues against an immediate broad-market breakdown
  
• It also means that if QQQ receives a positive AMD & payroll reaction, SPY can provide index-level stability
  

IWM remains the weak link

• Friday’s close near $290 was below the 20d average near $293, near the 50d average & accompanied by meaningful downside put positioning
  
• IWM needs to reclaim $291–$293, then $295–$297
  
• A break below $288 exposes $285, where the largest 7 August put OI sits
  
• If Sunday’s RTY strength holds Monday & IWM accepts above $293, that would be an important breadth improvement
  
• If RTY’s overnight gain fades & IWM loses $288–$290, the market remains narrow & defensive
  

Calculated from the midpoint of the ATM call & put as of Friday's close

7 August

• QQQ ±18 or ±2.6% → $668–$704
  
• SPY ±10 or ±1.3% → $735–$755
  
• IWM ±6 or ±1.9% → $285–296
  

14 August

• QQQ ±25 or ±3.6% → $661–$711
  
• SPY ±15 or ±2% → $730–$760
  
• IWM ±8 or ±2.8% → $282–$298
  

The QQQ upper boundary near $704 aligns with the daily MA cluster, the 50% retracement of the July decline, the $700 call wall & the hourly $700–$701 resistance & the lower boundary near $668 lies just above the $661 liquidity low

• Traders continue to pay materially more for downside protection than upside exposure
  
• The rebound has reduced panic, but the options market hasn't accepted that the low is secure
  
• $690 is the immediate pin
  
• $700 is the primary upside wall
  
• $710 is the next upside target if $700 breaks
  
• $660 is the principal downside wall
  
• $645–$650 contains substantial crash-protection interest
  

A sustained trade above $690 should reduce RV & pull price toward $700

• Failure below $685 increases the probability of faster movement toward $675–$670
  
• Below $660, dealer hedging could amplify downside movement toward $650–$645
  

The 7 August option structure is more stable for SPY given the expected move only ±1.3%,
major calls at $750 & $760, major downside puts at $730, $720 & $710

• SPY is likely to act as a stabilizer unless the employment report produces a major yield shock
  

IWM’s 7 August put wall is at $285, followed by $280 & $275

• $295–$300 is upside resistance
  
• $285 is the likely downside magnet/support
  
• Loss of $285 opens a more volatile downside regime
  

Monday — $690 test

• The most likely Monday path is a gap or early push toward $690–$693
  
• Bullish confirmation requires hold above $685 after the open, break $690 & hourly acceptance above $693
  
• A gap above $690 that immediately loses $685 would be a warning that Sunday’s move was primarily geopolitical short covering
  

Tuesday — positioning ahead of AMD

• QQQ may gravitate toward $690–$700 ahead of AMD because of the large $690 & $700 call concentrations
  
• I'd expect reduced intraday follow-through, choppier price action & IV remaining supported into the close
  

Wednesday — largest earnings reaction

• A strong AMD guide could produce QQQ gap through $700, SMH-led continuation & a $707–$713 test
  
• An inadequate guide could create rejection from $696–$700, gap back toward $680–$675 & renewed semi underperformance
  

Thursday — digestion

• Likely consolidation as the market positions for payrolls
  

Friday — range expansion

• The jobs report can drive QQQ to either weekly expected-move boundary
  
• Bullish data interpretation $700–$704
  
• Hawkish/negative interpretation $668–$675
  

My base case is a QQQ test of $696–$704 this week, not an immediate return to the highs given the current $685–$690 area is the middle of the decision area & doesn't offer an attractive chase entry