Euro-dollar has bounced since late last month as the most hawkish possibilities for the Fed by the end of the year seem to have been rejected for now and the intensity of the conflict in the Gulf declined. The ECB is also likely to call for a single hike by the end of the year with about 40% probability of two hikes. Recent data from the eurozone in general have been somewhat mixed but sentiment received a boost from 6 August’s German factory orders which were much better than expected.

The 100 SMA slightly below $1.157 seems to be the main dynamic resistance in view ahead of a possible test of the 23.6% weekly Fibonacci retracement near $1.16. However, the slow stochastic clearly signals buying saturation, so an immediate reaction upward if the NFP is negative might be short-lived.

A better NFP broadly in line with expectations might drive the price down to retest $1.15 at least in the short term. Further ahead, stronger results from both the NFP and American inflation on 12 August might drive the price down to the confluence of the 20 and 50 SMAs around $1.145. The golden cross of these can probably be discounted in the context of major American data coming up.

This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.