CME Group is testing a decisive technical area after a strong rebound from the $218.31 low.

The recovery has now reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $268.07 twice, but buyers have failed to secure a daily close above this resistance. These repeated rejections suggest that bullish momentum is losing strength and that the rebound may still be corrective rather than the beginning of a confirmed trend reversal.

Key Technical Levels

Resistance:

- $268.07 — 50% Fibonacci retracement and immediate breakout level
- $281.37 — 61.8% retracement and major bullish confirmation
- $301.47 — 78.6% retracement
- $314.11 — 88.6% retracement
- $329.16 — previous major high

Support:

- $255.39 — 38.2% retracement and first important support
- $244.11 — 27.2% retracement and primary bearish target
- $218.31 — major swing low

Bearish Scenario

As long as CME remains below $268.07, the double rejection keeps the downside scenario active.

A daily close below $255.39 would confirm renewed selling pressure and expose the $244.11 support area. If $244.11 also fails, the market could progressively retrace the entire recovery and revisit the $218.31 major low.

The bearish setup would begin to fail if CME closes decisively above $268.07. It would be fully invalidated by a sustained breakout above $281.37.

Bullish Scenario

Buyers need a convincing daily close above $268.07, ideally followed by a successful retest of that level as support.

Such a breakout would weaken the double-top interpretation and open the way toward $281.37. A move above $281.37 would provide stronger evidence that the rebound is developing into a broader bullish reversal, with $301.47 and $314.11 as subsequent targets.

Conclusion

CME is currently trading at a make-or-break Fibonacci barrier. The repeated rejection at $268.07 favours caution and leaves the $255.39–$244.11 support zone exposed.

Bullish confirmation: daily close above $268.07, strengthened above $281.37.

Bearish confirmation: daily close below $255.39.

Primary bearish objective: $244.11.

This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and apply appropriate risk management.

Laurent