Bearish Rationale (Key factors suppressing the extent of any rebound)

❌ Resistance Factor 1: Immediate proximity to the 63,600–63,800 resistance zone
The current price of 63,470 is very close to the resistance zone, where a significant volume of "trapped" sell orders and short-term profit-taking orders has accumulated. A breakout requires sustained increases in trading volume; given the current lack of fresh capital inflows, a clean breakout on the first attempt is difficult. Upon touching this resistance zone, the price is highly likely to experience a "spike and retreat" pattern.

❌ Resistance Factor 2: Price remains suppressed below the 50-day moving average on the daily chart
The medium-term technical setup reflects a pattern of weak, range-bound oscillation. A lack of sustained capital inflows from the bulls has resulted in poor rebound momentum. Multiple attempts to rally have failed to establish a foothold above key moving averages, creating a pattern of diminishing rebound strength. Even if short-term rallies occur, overhead resistance from multiple moving averages limits the upside, making a smooth, sustained bullish trend unlikely.

❌ Resistance Factor 3: Persistent capital outflows from spot ETFs and an absence of institutional medium-to-long-term buying
Short-term rebounds are largely driven by speculative capital rather than institutional long-term support. This "hot money" enters and exits quickly, cashing out soon after a rally, which causes rebounds to be fleeting and prevents the formation of a sustained upward trend. Profit-taking pressure emerges after every minor rally.

❌ Resistance Factor 4: Macro liquidity expectations are unfavorable for non-yielding crypto assets
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to be pushed back, and US Treasury yields remain elevated. Capital prefers holding bonds for stable returns, reducing the appeal of risk assets. This creates a medium-to-long-term macro backdrop that suppresses Bitcoin's upward momentum; without a significant shift toward rate-cut expectations, a major bullish rally is unlikely to materialize.