AUDUSD tests SMA 200 after strong ISM. What’s next?

AUDUSD is trading near 0.6990 after losing momentum from the 0.7040–0.7050 area. The pair is now testing the SMA 200, which makes this zone important for the next move.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected: 55.6 vs 54.0 forecast. ISM Prices also beat expectations: 71.1 vs 70.0 forecast. This supports the US dollar because stronger activity and sticky price pressure reduce expectations for faster Fed rate cuts.

For AUDUSD, the macro picture is mixed but slightly bearish. The Aussie still has support from hawkish RBA expectations, but weak China data continues to pressure commodity-linked currencies. Stronger US data gives the dollar the short-term advantage.

Technically, AUDUSD is below EMA 9, EMA 20 and SMA 50, while testing the SMA 200 near 0.6990. RSI is near 34 and MACD remains bearish, showing weak short-term momentum.
A small rebound from the SMA 200 is possible, but unless price returns above 0.7015–0.7025, the recovery may stay limited.

An H1 close below 0.6990 would confirm bearish pressure and open the way toward 0.6960–0.6945. A recovery above 0.7025 would weaken the bearish scenario and could return AUDUSD toward 0.7040–0.7050.

⚠️ Not financial advice.