Last time I posted here I was explaining my thoughts on how the 4.23 model i'd presented looked like it was failing and how I'd expect to see a lot of upside if it did.

That was about a year ago. We've went largely straight up since and now i'm starting to consider short ops again.

This is just a quick post to explain my intentions and possible update to the previous thesis (linked below). I'll expand more on my logic for it later.

For a TLDR;

When I realised my 4.23 model was going to fail, I had to go and work on it and find out if it was a bad model, if I used it wrong or if I'd just found the limits of what the model could do. if and when your model is proven wrong, you should go and work on a new model or at least explain why you think the model failed.

After a year of research, tool building, testing and repeating I have come up with a far stronger model for fibs in trends.

We are now at the next binary decision point in that model.

Detailed posts in due course.

Previous analysis;