SPY closed Friday at 773.14 with the broader market structure still firmly bullish.

But Monday's price forecast is showing something very different.

Market internals remain strongly bullish, but the forecast distribution has shifted below current price.

That is the most important read going into Monday.
The daily equilibrium sits at 765.78–768.28, well below Friday's 773.14 close. The upper forecast cluster at 772.73–773.00 has effectively already been reached, which means SPY starts Monday above most of the model's expected daily structure.

The weekly model is showing a similar displacement, with its central structure also sitting below current price. I'll cover the weekly levels separately, but the fact that both horizons are showing the same shift makes the current price location more interesting.

For Monday, 773 becomes the immediate decision area.

If SPY holds around 773 and buyers continue to press higher, 777.45 is the next meaningful upside reference. A sustained move through that level would indicate continued expansion beyond the daily forecast distribution.

If SPY fails to hold Friday's closing area, I would first watch the 768 region. That is where several parts of Monday's forecast begin to converge. Below that, 765.78 becomes the next important reference, followed by 763.56–764.10.

A pullback into these areas would not automatically change the broader bullish structure. With market participation still this strong, it could simply be price rotating back toward the model's expected distribution after Friday's strength.

Monday Decision Map:

Friday Close: 773.14
Immediate Decision Area: 772.73–773.00
Upper Reference: 777.45
Equilibrium: 765.78–768.28
Lower Reference: 763.56–764.10

Final Read

Monday starts with a clear divergence.
Breadth and participation remain strongly bullish, but the model's expected price distribution sits below the market.

That doesn't make me bearish. It does make chasing strength less attractive.

Acceptance above 773 would favor continued expansion toward 777.45. Failure to hold the area increases the possibility of rotation back toward 768.

For now, the broader structure favors the bulls, but at this price location, I would rather buy a controlled pullback than chase an already extended move.