ETH: The 1,925 Rejection Setup Hides a Structural Flaw
My first setup was simple: short 1,920 after a bounce from 1,925 resistance, target 1,840, and stop at 1,940. The headline R looked strong, but the supporting data exposed a weakness that changed all three levels.
The contradiction was structural: the 4h and 15m trends were up, with fresh bullish ChoCH/BOS, while price sat above rising 1h 50 EMA, 200 EMA, and both 15m VWAPs. My 1,920 short was also below the relevant 1h resistance at 1,927.19–1,936.57.
For entry, I replaced 1,920 with 1,931.915, the exact average of the four-touch 1h resistance zone at 1,927.19–1,936.57. That lets me sell from tested supply supporting the 1h Downtrend thesis instead of entering inside the 15m Uptrend.
I cut the target from 1,840 to 1,905.62. The old TP sat beyond multiple supports, while 1,905.62 is the upper boundary of the nearest fresh bullish 15m order block at 1,904–1,905.62 and sits beside the 1,905.84 current-day VWAP.
For the stop, I tightened 1,940 to 1,938. That places invalidation 1.43 points above the 1,936.57 resistance-zone high. From 1,931.915, the 6.085-point risk is about 1.50 times the supplied rising 15m ATR of 4.05.
My original trade risked 20 points for 80 points, giving 1:4. The revised setup risks 6.085 points for 26.295 points, improving R to 1:4.32 while targeting the nearest logical demand instead of requiring a breakdown through several support layers.