ETH - From trend to sideways movement
Now the range should be traded
Katsu on the Bridge. Let’s check ETH on our radar.
On the Ethereum 4H chart, I do not currently see a clean trend moving with strong force, but rather a sideways range that formed after the previous upward move. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because from a trading perspective, a range can often be more useful than a market that is just shaking around without a clear direction.
The yellow rectangle shows the current playground quite clearly. ETH is moving roughly inside the 1839-1951 range, while the upper part contains the bearish Order Blocks, and below we have the bullish Order Blocks and support zones.
The black path is obviously not an exact prediction, but a movement idea. It is useful because it shows what kind of movement we might expect if price continues to stay inside this sideways structure, and then eventually leaves the stage to the downside.
What Do I See on the Chart?
After the previous upward move, ETH did not collapse, but instead shifted into a resting phase. This can be healthy, because after a strong upward leg, the market often needs a sideways period where it becomes clear whether buyers can continue building the trend, or whether the move has already started to run out of strength.
The lower part of the current range is around 1839, while the upper part is around 1930-1951. I would not try to play hero in the middle of the range, because entries there are usually worse. Near the bottom we look for longs, near the top we look for shorts, and in the middle we wait.
Important Zones
Resistances
1900-1917 - Nearby bearish Order Block and decision zone. If price returns here but cannot stay above it, rejection may follow.
1951 - The upper part of the current sideways range and an important blue resistance. If ETH reclaims this level with strength, then the upper side of the range may be damaged, and another upside attempt could follow.
Supports
1839 - The lower part of the current sideways range. This is now one of the most important short-term supports.
1778 - Bullish Order Block. If 1839 fails, this could become the first more serious long watch zone.
1725 - Deeper support. If price drops here, then the current sideways structure is already weakening.
1640 - Deeper bullish Order Block and a larger defensive zone.
RSI and Volume
The RSI is moving in the middle range, so there is no overheated bullish condition, but there is no panic oversold condition either. This fits the sideways picture well. Volume also does not show the kind of brutal strength that would make me blindly look for a trend-following long. Right now, this is more of a reaction-trading market, not a market to chase.
Battle Plan - Trading the Sideways Range
Long Setup - From the Bottom of the Range
On the long side, the cleanest opportunity would be if price revisits the support around 1839, does not collapse there, and gives a buyer reaction.
What I want to see:
- price retests the area around 1839
- it wicks below or sweeps liquidity
- a strong rejection candle appears
- bullish ChoCh forms on the lower timeframe
- after the retest, the zone holds
Possible plan:
- Entry: 1835-1845, after confirmation
- Stop Loss: below 1800
- TP1: 1900
- TP2: 1917
- TP3: 1951
Deeper Long Setup - From the Bullish OB
If 1839 fails, I would not rush into a long. I would rather wait for the deeper green OB.
Watched zone: around 1778
What I would look for:
- slow drift or wick into the area around 1778
- local liquidity sweep
- strong buyer reaction
- bullish structure shift on the lower timeframe
- the zone holds after the retest
Possible plan:
- Entry: 1770-1785, after confirmation
- Stop Loss: below 1745
- TP1: 1839
- TP2: 1900
- TP3: 1917
Short Setup - From the Top of the Range
On the short side, the most interesting zone right now is 1900-1917, and above that the area around 1951.
What I want to see:
- price moves into the 1900-1917 zone
- momentum slows down there
- a rejection wick appears
- bearish ChoCh forms on the lower timeframe
- price falls back below 1900
- it cannot reclaim the level on the retest
Possible plan:
- Entry: 1917-1930, after confirmation
- Stop Loss: above 1965
- TP1: 1839
- TP2: 1778
- TP3: 1725
If price closes steadily above 1951 on the 4H timeframe and then holds the retest, the short idea weakens, and the plan needs to be rebuilt.
What Am I Watching Closely Now?
The most important question is whether ETH still wants to move inside the 1839-1951 sideways range.
If 1839 holds, then range trading remains alive, and another bounce toward the upper OBs can come. If 1839 fails, then 1778, and after that 1725, can come into play. But if ETH reclaims the area above 1951 with strength, then the top of the range is damaged, and the bulls may get more room again.
The zone is not the entry, the zone is only the radar signal. The entry comes from the reaction.
This is not financial advice. The raccoon was simply thinking out loud about JUP today.
I wrote down what I see, what I think, and how I would trade it.
Then either I am right... or we learn from it. :))
IMPORTANT!
The entry prices and stop-loss levels are not set in stone. These are my own plans, and I share them only to teach the thinking process behind the setup. Never enter a trade blindly just because someone said so. Check it, verify it, and make your own decision. This is exactly how I explain it to my students as well, because this way the logic is easier to follow, and it becomes clearer what I actually mean when I talk about Order Blocks.