Has the Breakout Begun?
Weekly Time Frame – W1

On the weekly time frame, a WXY corrective structure is developing. At present, we still cannot conclude whether wave Y has been completed, because the length of wave Y has not yet reached the length of wave W. However, in terms of duration, the current correction has already lasted significantly longer than the previous corrective waves.

Weekly momentum is currently rising, suggesting that the upward move may continue for another one to two weeks. The target for this corrective rally is the 50% equilibrium level of the previous decline, located around 4118, or until W1 momentum reverses downward.

Daily Time Frame – D1

So far, today’s bullish momentum has been very strong. Price is closely following the upper boundary of the triangle. If the bullish momentum is maintained and the D1 candle closes above the triangle’s upper boundary, this would create a very positive outlook for further upside.

Above the current price, there is still an FVG that has not been completely filled. This area is also aligned with the 50% Fibonacci level, so it may act as a price magnet and attract price upward to fill the remaining imbalance.

Today, the two short-term highs at 4169 and 4202 may be broken.

Four-Hour Time Frame – H4

Looking at the current bullish candle, we still cannot confirm that a genuine breakout has occurred, especially because price is trading within a high-liquidity resistance area. Therefore, the risk of a false breakout remains high.

We need to wait for a candle to close above the 4135 resistance level and above the upper boundary of the triangle to obtain further confirmation.

Below the current price, the two nearest support zones are located around 4116 and 4089. These areas may provide support if price pulls back. If price retraces into either of these zones, we may look for buy opportunities in line with the bullish momentum on the D1 time frame.

The upside targets are the previous long-term highs and the unfilled FVG above.

It is important to note that price is currently compressed within a triangular range. When a triangle pattern is completed, price will often break out strongly and decisively. This type of price action is an important characteristic that can help us confirm that the pattern has ended before looking for suitable trading opportunities.